CURRENCIES

GBP/USD retail trader data:

• Net-long position: 43.40%
• Short-to-long ratio: 1.30 to 1
• Net-long traders:
  • Decreased by 18.07% since yesterday
  • Decreased by 0.62% from last week
• Net-short traders:
  • Increased by 23.53% since yesterday
  • Decreased by 2.02% from last week

Contrarian stance to crowd sentiment:

• Current net-short position suggests potential continued rise in GBP/USD prices.
• Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short compared to last week.
• Mixed GBP/USD trading outlook based on current sentiment and recent shifts.

EUR/GBP retail trader data:

• Net-long position: 62.78%
• Long-to-short ratio: 1.69 to 1
• Net-long traders:
  • Increased by 3.38% since yesterday
  • Decreased by 21.19% from last week
• Net-short traders:
  • Declined by 5.22% since yesterday
  • Risen by 26.88% from last week

Contrarian stance to crowd sentiment:

• Current net-long position suggests potential continued decline in EUR/GBP prices.
• Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long compared to last week.
• Mixed EUR/GBP trading outlook based on current sentiment and recent shifts.

STOCK MARKET

Tesla’s latest announcement:

• Production: approximately 411,000 vehicles in Q2.
• Deliveries: nearly 444,000 cars in Q2, surpassing consensus estimates.
• Despite a year-over-year drop in deliveries, analysts remain bullish.

Analyst reactions:

• Citi analysts:
  • See potential for improving sentiment in Tesla shares and the broader EV market.
• Dan Ives (Wedbush Securities):
  • Describes the delivery results as a “major turning point” for Tesla.
  • Believes Tesla is the most undervalued AI play in the market.
  • Raised price target to $300 from $275, with a bull case of $400 for 2025.
  • Highlights the upcoming robotaxi event on Aug. 8 as crucial for Tesla’s autonomous future.
• Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley):
  • Calls Tesla’s results the “1st Positive Surprise of the Year.”
  • Notes Tesla delivered 33,000 more units than produced in Q2.
  • Highlights Tesla’s energy storage business as a “show stealer,” with its highest quarterly deployment and a record profit margin.
  • Has an overweight rating with a $310 price target.

Market dynamics and challenges:

• Tesla faces competition from Chinese counterparts and fluctuating US EV demand.
• The company cut more than 10% of its global staff earlier this year to reduce costs.
• CEO Elon Musk acknowledged near-term demand and sales challenges during the shareholder meeting.
• Tesla reduced prices last year to boost sales.

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Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

CURRENCIES

USD/JPY:

• Data shows a significant majority of clients are net short.
• Change in longs/shorts/open interest (OI):
  • Daily: longs +8%, shorts +1%, OI +2%
  • Weekly: longs +19%, shorts +6%, OI +9%
• Implications for price action:
  • Despite the bearish sentiment, there is a rise in long positions.
  • Long positions have increased by 16.84% daily and 9.34% weekly.
  • Net-short sentiment often signals bullish trends, but recent changes suggest a potential trend reversal.

GBP/JPY market dynamics: poised for potential upswing

• Current data shows only 19.38% of traders holding long positions.
• Short-to-long ratio: 4.16 to 1, indicating strong bearish sentiment.
• Change in positions:
  • Daily: longs +8.27%, shorts +6.39%
  • Weekly: longs -18.64%, shorts +3.63%
• Trading bias:
  • Net-short positioning suggests potential upward momentum.
  • Recent fluctuations create a mixed trading outlook.
  • Balance of market forces indicates a nuanced trading environment.

STOCK MARKET

Tesla (TSLA) Inc. sales slump:

• Analysts predict Tesla will report weaker sales for another consecutive quarter.
• Expected to report delivery of 441,019 electric vehicles in Q2, a 5.4% drop year-over-year.
• This would mark the second consecutive quarterly decline, a trend last seen in 2012.

Factors contributing to struggles:

• Issues such as a suspected arson attack at its Berlin factory and shipping diversions in the Red Sea have been resolved.
• The main issue now is Tesla’s older vehicle lineup facing stiff competition from newer EV models.

Market and competitive analysis:

• Increased competition and a stale model lineup make growth challenging.
• Despite price cuts and leasing deals, sales slowed in the second half of last year and continued to decline.

Operational changes and challenges:

• Staffing cuts in April affected over 10% of Tesla’s workforce, including sales staff.
• Musk is pushing for an online sales process, which might not address new EV buyers’ needs for information and reassurance.

Model and product performance:

• The Model Y, the best-selling vehicle last year, has been on the market since 2020; the Model 3 since 2017.
• The Cybertruck, Tesla’s first pickup, has had a slow start and multiple recalls.

Investor reactions and future prospects:

• Despite analysts lowering delivery estimates, Tesla’s stock is down 20% for the year.
• Musk’s promises of new models, humanoid robots, and a dedicated robotaxi by August have buoyed shares.
• Shareholders recently re-approved Musk’s $56 billion compensation package.
• Analyst Ben Kallo expects Tesla to deliver 435,200 units this quarter and about 1.83 million for the year.
• Focus remains on long-term prospects, particularly the upcoming Robotaxi event on August 8.

Click here to open account and start trading.

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

CURRENCIES

French election outcomes:

• The right-wing National Rally (NR) party secured nearly 34% of the vote.
• The left-wing New Popular Front garnered just over 28%.
• President Macron’s alliance came third with around 21%.
• NR is close to the 289 seats needed to form a government but is projected to fall short by about 10 seats in the second round.

Market response:

• Both the Euro and CAC 40 started the week strong.
• CAC 40 rose by 2.5%, now at 7,685, yet still below the May 10th peak of 8,262.
• The Euro increased, but further gains may be limited before next week’s elections.
• EUR/USD is trading around 1.0765, near a three-week high.

Market conditions:

• Anticipated tactical voting in France could heighten CAC 40 volatility.
• Important upcoming US data, particularly Friday’s US Jobs Report (NFP), will impact EUR/USD movements.

Trader sentiment:

• Retail trader data indicates 50.39% of traders are net-long.
• The ratio of long to short traders is 1.02 to 1.
• The number of net-long traders decreased by 10.75% since yesterday and 25.08% since last week.
• Net-short traders increased by 21.60% since yesterday and 30.87% since last week.
• A contrarian view suggests EUR/USD might fall, but recent sentiment shifts hint at a potential upward reversal despite current net-long positions.

STOCK MARKET

Market reaction:

• European stocks and the euro surged on speculation that Marine Le Pen’s far-right party will struggle to secure an outright majority in the French elections, reducing investor concerns about a radical policy shift in France.

Election impact:

• France’s CAC 40 Index jumped 2.8%, the largest gain since November 2022, as Le Pen’s National Rally led President Macron’s centrist alliance by a smaller margin than expected.
• The Euro reached its strongest level since mid-June.
• The yield spread between French 10-year bonds and German bonds narrowed, indicating reduced risk perceptions.

Market performance:

• Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index rose by 1%, with banking stocks leading the gains.
• Societe Generale SA, BNP Paribas SA, and Credit Agricole SA surged over 5%.
• US equity futures trimmed earlier gains.

Market sentiment:

• Investors showed relief as neither far-right nor far-left parties are expected to implement extreme policies.

Corporate news:

• Boeing Co. agreed to buy back Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc. for $37.25 per share in an all-stock deal.
• The US Justice Department will charge Boeing with criminal fraud.

US economic data:

• Indicators suggest the US economy is cooling without lasting consumer damage.
• US consumer sentiment declined less than expected, with inflationary pressures predicted to moderate.
• Treasury 10-year notes showed little change.

Global market dynamics:

• The South African rand led gains among emerging market currencies after President Cyril Ramaphosa announced a new business-friendly cabinet.
• Oil prices edged higher amidst economic and geopolitical assessments.
• Iron ore prices rose on signs of recovery in China’s property market and potential further support from Beijing.

Click here to open account and start trading.

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

Dear Client,

Please note that the dividends of the following products will be adjusted accordingly. Index dividends will be executed separately through a balance statement directly to your trading account, and the comment will be in the following format “Div & Product Name & Net Volume ”.

Please refer to the table below for more details:

The above data is for reference only, please refer to the MT4/MT5 software for specific data.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].

CURRENCIES

French elections:

• National Rally: Leads the polls but unlikely to secure an outright majority.
• Impact: A fractured French government may weigh on the Euro.
• Poll Predictions:
  • National Rally (RN): 31.5% to 35%.
  • People’s Front (left coalition): 28% to 29.5%.
  • President Macron’s alliance: 19.5% to 22%.
• Implications: The fragmented vote will affect both French assets and the Euro in the coming days.
• Second round: Final vote on Sunday, July 7th.

EUR/USD drivers:

• Recent decline due to US dollar strength and Euro weakness.
• Key data releases today: US durable goods and final Q1 GDP.
• Focus: Friday’s US core PCE report for further guidance.

Market impact:

• Volatility: High-importance US data and French elections will create a volatile environment for EUR/USD traders.
• Current price: EUR/USD below 1.0700, struggling to move higher.
• Technical analysis:
  • Downward trend since late December with lower highs and lower lows.
  • Key levels: April 16 multi-month low and October 2023 double low around 1.0516 as downside targets.
  • Initial resistance around 1.0750.

Retail trader data:

• 66.18% of traders are net-long (ratio of 1.96 to 1).
• Increase in net-long positions: 14.14% higher than yesterday, 25.04% higher than last week.
• Decrease in net-short positions: 14.48% lower than yesterday, 22.26% lower than last week.
• Contrarian view: High net-long positions suggest potential for further EUR/USD decline.
• Bias: Stronger EUR/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias due to current sentiment and recent changes.

STOCK MARKET

Market impact:

• Nvidia Corp. (NVDA): Recently experienced a significant drop, losing nearly half a trillion dollars in market value.
• South Korea’s major companies: Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. also saw declines due to their roles in the AI supply chain.

Micron’s role in AI:

• High-bandwidth memory: Micron’s memory is used alongside Nvidia’s chips for AI applications.
• Stock performance: Micron’s shares had more than doubled in the past year but were punished for not exceeding high expectations.
• Analyst expectations: The company’s outlook was in line with average estimates, but this was not enough to satisfy the market.

Market sentiment:

• Unrealistic expectations: Many companies that beat estimates are still being sold off.
• Andrew Jackson’s view: The market holds unrealistic expectations and is aware that US names are overvalued.

AI sector volatility:

• Nvidia correction: Nvidia shares entered correction territory earlier this week before recovering.
• Semiconductor index: A global semiconductor index fell about 5% from its recent high.

Micron’s position:

• Traditional business: Micron is still recovering from a slump in its traditional memory supply for PCs and smartphones.
• Share price uncertainty: The company’s briefing fell short of SK Hynix’s announcement that its HBM production capacity is sold out through 2025.

Industry insights:

• Tom Kang’s perspective: Micron does not hold a dominant position in AI memory like SK Hynix or in the broader memory industry like Samsung.
• Reality check: This situation serves as a reality check for the AI sector, which appears to be in a bubble.

Valuation concern:

• High valuations: The rally in US megacap stocks associated with AI has led to historically high valuations.
• Micron’s valuation: Micron shares are priced at 4.5 times projected sales over the next 12 months, compared to an average of 2.2 times over the past 10 years.

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Dear Client,

As part of our commitment to provide the most reliable service to our clients, there will be server maintenance this weekend.

Maintenance Hours:
29th of June 2024 (Saturday) 00:00 – 12:00 (GMT+3)

Please note that the following aspects might be affected during the maintenance:
1. During the maintenance hours, the Client Portal and VT Markets App will be unavailable, including managing trades, Deposit/Withdrawal, registration and all the other functions will be limited.
2. During the maintenance hours, price quotes and trading management will be temporarily disabled. You will not be able to open new positions, close existing positions, or make any adjustments to your trades.
3. There might be a gap between the original price and the price after maintenance. The gaps between Pending Orders, Stop Loss and Take Profit will be filled at the market price once the maintenance is completed. It is suggested that you manage the account properly.

Please refer to MT4 / MT5 / VT Markets APP and Client Portal for the latest update on the maintenance completion and market opening time.

Thank you for your patience and understanding about this important initiative.

If you’d like more information, please don’t hesitate to contact [email protected].