Rabobank said it expects the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee to keep Bank Rate at 3.75% at the April meeting, with a cautious policy stance. It linked this view to markets stabilising in recent weeks.

It cited weaker domestic demand and already restrictive policy compared with 2022. It also said conditions are less likely to produce second-round effects.

Energy Prices And Near Term Inflation

The bank noted that energy prices have been lower than expected, even with the Strait of Hormuz still closed. It said this could lead to a small downward revision to its near-term inflation forecast if it persists.

Rabobank said a smaller inflation impulse would reduce the risk of entrenched inflation, while the outlook remains uncertain. It still expects one further rate rise, but does not expect a renewed rate-hiking cycle.

Looking back at the analysis from last year, we can see the Bank of England was expected to hold rates at 3.75% amid concerns over inflation, even with weaker demand. Now, in April 2026, the conversation has shifted entirely from hiking to the timing of potential cuts. The core dilemma of balancing inflation with a weak economy remains the central issue for the MPC.

The recent inflation data adds a layer of complexity to our strategy. The March 2026 CPI figure came in at 2.9%, slightly above the 2.7% that was forecast, showing that price pressures are proving stubborn. This sticky inflation makes the Bank of England hesitant to signal an immediate rate cut, echoing the “vigilant stance” we saw them adopt in 2025.

Strategy For Rates Volatility

On the other hand, the domestic economy is showing clear signs of strain, a continuation of the trend identified last year. The latest figures for Q1 2026 show GDP growth at a sluggish 0.1%, barely avoiding a recession. This weak performance puts significant pressure on the MPC to ease its restrictive policy to stimulate demand.

Given this conflict between sticky inflation and stagnant growth, trading interest rate volatility appears prudent. We should consider using options on SONIA futures, such as straddles, to profit from a significant rate move in either direction. The market is currently pricing in two full rate cuts by year-end, and any deviation from this path will likely cause a sharp repricing.

For those with a directional view, the weak growth backdrop suggests positioning for lower rates is the logical path forward. We can build positions in interest rate swaps or go long on SONIA futures contracts to benefit from eventual BoE cuts. However, the recent inflation data means we should be cautious about the timing, as the first cut may come later than the market currently anticipates.

A key difference from last year is the energy market, as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has helped stabilize prices. While in early 2025 this was a major uncertainty driving inflation forecasts, it is now a tailwind for disinflation. This supports the long-term view that the Bank will have to cut rates to support the economy.

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The US Dollar Index (DXY) has lost momentum near 98.50 and has drifted lower from recent highs. A pullback in US yields and profit-taking ahead of the weekend has weighed on the US Dollar, even with Oil above $90 this week and Middle East tensions still present.

Markets are positioning for next week’s central bank meetings, with the Fed, ECB, BoJ and BoE widely expected to keep rates unchanged. Attention is turning to guidance on inflation.

Major Fx Moves And Central Bank Focus

EUR/USD trades near 1.1710, edging up as the US Dollar softens, while caution ahead of the ECB limits gains. GBP/USD moved towards 1.3530 on the weaker US Dollar, as higher energy prices add to UK inflation risks.

USD/JPY eased from around 159.40 but remains elevated due to yield gaps, while intervention risk persists. AUD/USD rose towards 0.7150 as the US Dollar weakened and risk sentiment steadied.

WTI slid towards $94.40 per barrel, while keeping strong weekly gains amid Strait of Hormuz supply worries. Gold climbed towards $4,720 per ounce on the softer US Dollar and geopolitical uncertainty, with higher US yields limiting the move.

Events run from April 27 to May 1, including ECB and BoE speeches, the BoJ decision, the Fed decision, and data such as US Core PCE, US Q1 GDP, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Australia CPI. WTI is a US crude benchmark; prices are driven by supply and demand, OPEC policy, the US Dollar, and API and EIA inventory reports, which are within 1% of each other 75% of the time.

Key Risks Into Next Week

With the US Dollar Index showing signs of fatigue around 98.50, we see this as a temporary pause before a week of major central bank decisions. This pullback looks like profit-taking after a strong run, especially since recent US economic data, like the March jobs report which added over 290,000 jobs, continues to point towards a resilient economy. Traders should view this dip as a chance to position for volatility, not a confirmed trend reversal.

The Federal Reserve meeting is the main event, and any derivative strategy should be centered around its outcome. We saw throughout 2025 how persistent services inflation kept the Fed’s tone hawkish, with Core PCE averaging near 2.8% in the second half of that year. Given this history, options traders could consider straddles or strangles on major pairs like EUR/USD to capitalize on a sharp move in either direction following the press conference.

For USD/JPY, trading near 159.40 puts everyone on high alert for intervention from Japanese authorities. Looking back at 2024 and 2025, we know the Ministry of Finance has stepped in aggressively above the 155 level, so the risk of a sudden, sharp drop is very high. Cautious traders might use this pullback to reduce long positions or buy cheap out-of-the-money puts as a hedge against surprise action.

The gains in EUR/USD and GBP/USD towards 1.1710 and 1.3530, respectively, seem more related to the dollar’s softness than fundamental European strength. The economic divergence we saw in 2025, with the US outperforming the Eurozone, still lingers, likely limiting the upside for these currencies. The upcoming ECB and BoE meetings are expected to hold rates, so their guidance on inflation will be critical for direction.

In commodities, elevated oil prices above $94 per barrel continue to be a primary concern, fueled by geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. We saw how OPEC+ extended production cuts through 2025 to support prices, and this supply discipline remains a key factor. Meanwhile, gold’s push towards $4,720 is a direct beneficiary of the weaker dollar, but its gains will be capped if US yields firm up after the Fed meeting.

The sheer volume of data next week, including US Q1 GDP, Core PCE, and PMIs from China, means that central bank decisions won’t happen in a vacuum. A hotter-than-expected US inflation print on Thursday could easily erase the dollar’s recent losses and reset market expectations. Traders should therefore remain nimble, as the current calm is unlikely to last beyond next Tuesday.

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Gold rose above $4,700 on Friday and was trading at $4,726, up 0.47%. The move followed reports of renewed Iran–US contacts over a possible second round of talks.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was expected in Islamabad on Friday. The White House said Steve Wytkoff and Jared Kushner would travel to Pakistan on Saturday morning for Iran talks.

Markets React To Iran Talks

After the headlines, WTI crude fell by about 3.50%. US 10-year Treasury yields dipped 1.5 basis points to 4.31%, while the US Dollar Index fell 0.22% to 98.57.

Despite the day’s rise, gold was still set for a 2.30% weekly loss. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 49.8 in April from 53.3 in March, the lowest since 1978.

One-year inflation expectations rose to 4.7% and five-year expectations increased to 3.5%. The Prime Terminal implied forward rate curve points to the Fed holding rates through 2026, with a first cut in July 2027.

Gold traded in a $4,700–$4,730 range, with resistance at the 100-day SMA of $4,729. Supports were $4,657, $4,600 and $4,554, with further levels at $4,750, $4,800 and the 50-day SMA at $4,869.

Key Risks And Trading Approach

We see gold caught between hopes for a peace deal in the Middle East and persistent economic worries at home. The potential for a US-Iran agreement is putting pressure on prices, as shown by the recent drop in crude oil. However, weak consumer sentiment and stubbornly high inflation expectations are providing a strong floor under the market.

We should not forget the underlying support from central banks, which continued their record-breaking purchases through 2025, mirroring the trend we saw in 2022 and 2023. The World Gold Council reported that over 1,000 tonnes were added to official reserves last year, signaling a strategic shift away from the dollar. This persistent demand creates a buffer against sharp sell-offs from diplomatic news.

Given the binary nature of the upcoming Iran talks, a sharp price move in either direction is highly probable. We believe that strategies that benefit from a spike in volatility, such as long straddles or strangles using options, are prudent. This allows us to profit whether a peace deal sends gold tumbling below $4,600 or failed talks propel it towards $4,800.

We are closely watching the $4,700 support level; a decisive break below this could trigger a rapid move toward the $4,554 swing low. For those already holding long positions, buying puts with a strike price around $4,650 could offer cheap insurance against a sudden diplomatic breakthrough. Conversely, any sign of talks faltering would make call options targeting the $4,800 resistance an attractive short-term play.

Beyond the immediate geopolitical headlines, next week’s Fed meeting and GDP data will be critical. While the market has priced in a “higher for longer” interest rate environment, any surprisingly weak economic data could reignite fears of stagflation. This scenario, reminiscent of what we saw develop through 2025, would be extremely bullish for gold, regardless of the Fed’s official stance.

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NZD/USD rose as the US Dollar softened on Friday, with the pair trading near 0.5880, up about 0.46% on the day. It was set for a third straight weekly gain.

Reports said US officials Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner would travel to Islamabad for talks linked to Iran. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was also reported to be heading to Islamabad.

Dollar Retreat Lifts Kiwi

The US Dollar Index slipped from a one-week high near 98.94 to about 98.56, down roughly 0.27%. The move followed lower demand for safe-haven assets.

There were no confirmed signs of direct talks, with Pakistan acting as a channel between the sides. The ongoing US naval blockade was described as a barrier to negotiations.

Tensions continued around the Strait of Hormuz, which remained under a dual blockade that was disrupting oil supplies. Oil prices kept a risk premium, adding to inflation concerns.

In New Zealand, markets expected the RBNZ to raise rates further at its May meeting due to elevated inflation and oil-related risks. In the US, markets fully priced in a pause at next week’s Fed meeting, with rates expected to stay on hold for longer.

Key Market Risks Ahead

Traders were watching for changes in the US-Iran situation that could shift the US Dollar and NZD/USD.

With diplomatic channels opening between the US and China over the South China Sea, we are seeing a clear shift in risk sentiment. This is softening the US Dollar, which has helped push NZD/USD towards the 0.6150 mark. The current environment mirrors the setup we observed last year during the brief US-Iran de-escalation hopes.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is giving us strong reasons to favor the Kiwi dollar. With domestic inflation proving stubborn at 3.5%, well above target, the RBNZ is holding its Official Cash Rate at 5.75% and signaling it will stay there for some time. This contrasts sharply with other central banks that are closer to cutting rates.

In contrast, the US Federal Reserve appears to be on a different path. US inflation has cooled to 2.8%, increasing market confidence that the next move from the Fed will be a rate cut later this year. The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a greater than 90% probability of a cut by the September meeting, creating a headwind for the US Dollar.

For derivative traders, this policy divergence suggests buying NZD/USD call options could be a prudent strategy. A trader might consider calls with a strike price around 0.6200 expiring in the next six to eight weeks. This position would profit from continued upside momentum while capping potential losses at the premium paid.

Alternatively, we could look at risk reversals, which measure the skew between call and put options. With the market still wary of a potential breakdown in geopolitical talks, implied volatility on NZD/USD puts may be elevated. We could structure a trade that takes advantage of this by selling puts to finance the purchase of calls, positioning for upside at a reduced cost.

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Commerzbank reported that Germany’s growth outlook is being reduced by an energy price shock, alongside external trade pressures and limited reforms. It said a longer shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz would raise the chance of recession.

The Ifo Business Climate Index fell to 84.4 from 86.3, which the bank linked to weaker conditions. It estimated that growth in 2026 will be about 0.6%, or 0.3% after adjusting for the unusually high number of working days.

It said that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens at the end of May after a total of three months, growth this year would still be 0.4 percentage points lower. It added that each extra day without oil shipments through the strait increases recession risk.

The bank stated that a fiscal stimulus worth 0.8% of GDP is largely offset by the energy shock, tariff rises, and the absence of broad reforms. It said it lowered its 2026 forecast to 0.6% four weeks earlier, and reiterated the 0.3% working-day-adjusted figure.

The sharp fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index to 84.4 clearly shows how hard the energy price shock is hitting the German economy. With growth forecasts for this year lowered to just 0.6%, we should expect continued pressure on German assets. This outlook is based on the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz reopens at the end of May; any delay will worsen the situation.

Given this de facto stagnation, traders should consider bearish positions on German equities. Buying put options on the DAX index is a straightforward strategy to capitalize on falling corporate earnings expectations. Recent data supports this view, with German industrial production figures released last week showing a 1.5% month-on-month contraction, the steepest since the energy supply issues we saw in 2025.

The slowdown is also a significant headwind for the euro, which has struggled to stay above 1.05 against the dollar. We see further downside for the currency as President Trump’s tariff hikes add another layer of economic friction. Shorting EUR/USD futures or buying euro puts can hedge against this weakness.

Uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz situation is keeping volatility high, with the VSTOXX index trading near its highest levels for the year. This environment makes buying call options on the VSTOXX an attractive trade, as it profits from increasing market fear. Every day the blockade continues, the risk of a recession grows, likely pushing volatility even higher.

In fixed income, the weak economic outlook has forced markets to push back expectations for any European Central Bank rate hikes. This has been supportive for German government bonds, with the 10-year Bund yield dropping 20 basis points this month in a flight to safety. Looking back at the sovereign debt crisis of 2011, we saw a similar pattern where German debt acted as a haven.

The core issue remains oil prices, with Brent crude holding firmly above $125 per barrel for nearly eight weeks. The key variable for traders is the timing of a potential reopening of the Strait, which would trigger a sharp price decline. Until then, high implied volatility in oil options makes strategies that profit from price movement, such as long straddles, a consideration.

Standard Chartered economists Dan Pan and Steve Englander reviewed how the US Supreme Court’s ruling against IEEPA tariffs affects US tariff receipts. They report that tariff income fell after the decision but stayed well above pre-Liberation Day levels.

They expect tariff revenue to be about USD 25bn in each of March and April, the first two months after the ruling. Current receipts are about 3.4x pre-Liberation Day levels, compared with more than 4x 2024 levels at the end-2025 pace when tariffs were fully in place.

At the current rate, they estimate the revenue loss from the IEEPA ruling at USD 60bn annualised. They also state that IEEPA tariffs made up over half of US tariff revenue.

They note that further declines are possible as remedies expire and reimbursements speed up. A 10% Section 122 blanket tariff introduced after the ruling has helped offset the shortfall, but it has a 150-day limit and is due to end on 24 July 2026.

We see that the recent Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs has introduced significant uncertainty into the US fiscal picture. While the initial drop in tariff revenue to $25 billion per month wasn’t as severe as some expected, it still represents a material risk to the budget. This situation requires us to be nimble and prepare for heightened volatility, particularly in currency and interest rate markets.

The Congressional Budget Office’s latest April projection now shows the fiscal deficit widening by another $50 billion for the year, directly citing the fall in tariff receipts. This potential for increased government borrowing could put upward pressure on Treasury yields, making interest rate derivatives a key area to watch. We should consider positions that would benefit from a steeper yield curve as the government looks to fund this unexpected shortfall.

The most critical date on our calendar is July 24, 2026, when the temporary 10% Section 122 tariff is set to expire. This tariff has been a crucial stopgap, and its removal without a replacement would create a fiscal cliff, likely weakening the US dollar. We are closely monitoring any legislative discussions for a long-term solution, as market sentiment will be highly sensitive to this news flow.

Market anxiety is already becoming visible, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) creeping up to 19.5 this week from an average of 16 last month. This reminds us of the trade disputes in the late 2010s, where currency markets saw sharp swings based on tariff announcements. When we look back at the market stability of late 2025, it was partly supported by a strong and predictable revenue stream that is now in question.

This shift creates opportunities in specific equity sectors. We should be looking at options strategies that favour import-heavy industries, such as retail and consumer electronics, which stand to benefit from lower costs. Conversely, it would be prudent to hedge against weakness in domestic producers in sectors like steel and manufacturing that previously benefited from tariff protection.

The clear deadline in July suggests that trading volatility itself is a sound strategy. We can use options on major currency pairs like EUR/USD or equity index ETFs to position for a significant market move as that date approaches. A long straddle or strangle could be effective in capturing the price swing without needing to predict the exact direction.

Baker Hughes reported that the US oil rig count fell to 407. The previous count was 410.

The number dropped by 3 rigs compared with the prior report. The update relates to oil drilling rigs in the United States.

The slight drop in the U.S. oil rig count to 407 confirms a trend of producer caution we’ve been watching. This suggests future production might tighten, putting a potential floor under oil prices. We see this as a direct response to WTI crude prices softening to the mid-$70s range in early April 2026, after weaker-than-expected economic growth figures for the first quarter were released.

This decline continues a pattern we observed throughout last year. Looking back at 2025, rig counts consistently stayed above 450, so the current level of 407 represents a significant year-over-year slowdown in drilling activity. This signals that companies are prioritizing capital discipline over aggressive expansion, a theme that has dominated the industry post-2022.

For traders using futures, this gradual tightening of supply makes long-dated contracts look more attractive. Consider establishing positions in late 2026 or early 2027 contracts, as the market is not yet fully pricing in the impact of sustained lower drilling. The current market structure, or contango, makes this a potentially profitable calendar spread trade.

In the options market, this slow-moving trend means implied volatility may remain low for now. This presents an opportunity to buy call spreads on crude oil for the summer months, such as for July delivery, targeting a modest price recovery toward the $80 level. This strategy offers a defined-risk way to position for a gradual price increase driven by tightening fundamentals.

We should keep a close eye on the upcoming weekly inventory reports for any signs of an accelerated drawdown in crude stocks. Furthermore, all positioning should be managed carefully ahead of the next OPEC+ meeting in early June 2026. Any unexpected change in their production policy could quickly override the subtle signals coming from U.S. rig counts.

The United States blockade in the Strait of Hormuz continued, with no progress towards another round of peace talks. President Trump ordered the US Navy to shoot at any boat laying mines, and the US military reported intercepting two oil supertankers trying to evade the blockade.

The policy focus remained on the Strait of Hormuz and on pressuring Iran to change its position. The closure was linked to rising oil and input costs, with risks of higher crude prices and greater financial market volatility.

Inflation Scenario And Oil Price Assumptions

A scenario using an average crude oil price of USD 115pbl in Q2 projected annual inflation at around 3.6% in Q2, rising to 3.8% in Q3 and Q4 this year. It also stated that refined fuel and fertiliser prices could push inflation above these estimates.

The situation was described as having global inflation effects, including in Europe. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England were expected to act faster than the Federal Reserve, with implications for US dollar performance if equity market resilience continues.

Looking back at the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, we saw the predicted inflation shock materialize as crude oil prices surged. That surge has left its mark, with recent data showing US inflation remains stubbornly high at 3.5% as of March 2026, well above the central bank’s target. This persistent price pressure, born from last year’s energy crisis, continues to be the dominant factor for markets.

For energy derivatives, the focus should be on managing volatility now that Brent crude has settled around $90 per barrel, down from the highs seen during the 2025 blockade. Given the lingering geopolitical risk, buying call spreads on WTI or Brent offers a cost-effective way to position for another potential spike. We believe outright long positions are risky, but options allow traders to capitalize on price swings while defining their risk.

Dollar Rates And Derivatives Implications

The US dollar’s performance has been complex, just as we anticipated last year. The European Central Bank and Bank of England did act more swiftly than the Federal Reserve in 2025, which initially weakened the dollar and sent EUR/USD toward 1.10. However, with US inflation proving stickier than in Europe, traders should now consider positions that bet on a stronger dollar, as the Fed may be forced to delay rate cuts longer than its counterparts.

This environment is ideal for interest rate derivative strategies. The market has drastically reduced its expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026, a direct consequence of the inflationary wave from last year’s events. We see opportunities in options on SOFR futures, positioning for a “higher for longer” rate scenario. Watch the MOVE index, as bond market volatility is likely to increase ahead of upcoming Fed meetings.

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WTI crude traded near $92.55 on Friday, down 3.28% on the day, after rising to recent highs earlier in the week. The move followed a reassessment of how quickly tensions between Iran and the United States might ease.

Iran’s Foreign Minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, is travelling to Pakistan for another round of indirect talks with Washington. Concerns remain about supply risks linked to the Strait of Hormuz, including disruption to shipping and sporadic military action.

US data also weighed on prices as the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 49.8 in April, its lowest level in decades. Inflation expectations have risen, with higher energy prices listed as one factor.

These conditions have added caution around future oil demand in the United States. Geopolitical risks remain, but weaker sentiment and demand concerns have limited near-term price gains.

Given the sharp pullback in WTI, we are seeing a classic conflict between supply risks and demand fears. The uncertain US-Iran talks are adding to market nervousness, making straightforward directional bets difficult in the coming weeks. This environment suggests that volatility is the main factor we should be trading.

The drop in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment to 49.8 is a serious warning for oil demand. We saw a similar situation back in mid-2022 when the index hit a low of 50.0, which was followed by a nearly 8% drop in US gasoline demand over the next several months according to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. This historical pattern suggests that strategies like buying put options or establishing bear put spreads could be sensible to protect against further price drops driven by a slowing economy.

However, we cannot ignore the persistent risk in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption passes daily. Past events, such as the tensions in 2019, have shown that any military escalation can cause prices to spike sharply, even if only for a short time. This makes holding an outright short position extremely risky, and it may be wise to own some out-of-the-money call options as a hedge.

With these opposing forces at play, implied volatility is likely to be elevated, similar to levels we observed during the geopolitical shocks of 2022. For traders who believe a significant price move is imminent but are unsure of the direction, a long straddle or strangle options strategy would be appropriate. These positions would profit from a large swing, whether it is a supply-driven spike or a demand-driven collapse.

Alternatively, if we believe these factors will cancel each other out and keep oil prices within a defined range, selling premium could be the better approach. An iron condor, for example, would allow us to profit if WTI remains stuck between its geopolitical support floor and its economic resistance ceiling. This would capitalize on the idea that the upside is capped while the downside is cushioned by supply risks.

Recent figures from the Energy Information Administration have indicated a surprising build in US crude inventories, adding weight to the weakening demand narrative. This build, coming at a time of year when inventories typically begin to draw down, reinforces a cautious outlook. It suggests the geopolitical risk premium is currently the main factor holding prices above $90 per barrel.

TD Securities expects a broadly neutral near-term impact on the Canadian Dollar (CAD) from a more balanced Bank of Canada (BoC) tone. It says risks to Canada’s outlook now appear more two-sided, allowing the BoC to stay cautiously neutral without signalling imminent action.

With USD/CAD trading back near pre-conflict levels, TD expects the pair to be choppy and remain around current levels through Q2 2026. It links this to markets moving past peak geopolitical shock and uncertainty premia.

Near Term Cad Outlook

TD maintains a bearish view on the US dollar in 2026 and forecasts USD/CAD will drift lower in the second half of 2026. It projects the pair at 1.34 by year-end 2026.

TD also points to USMCA as an asymmetric risk for USD/CAD, describing a deal as more supportive for CAD sentiment and positioning than the absence of a deal. It expects USMCA-compliant goods to remain exempt from tariffs regardless of whether a deal is reached.

The Bank of Canada’s more balanced tone suggests a period of stability for the Canadian dollar in the near term. Recent inflation data for March 2026 came in at 2.9%, landing squarely within the central bank’s target range and supporting their decision to hold rates. This means we should prepare for the USD/CAD pair to trade within a familiar range over the coming weeks.

With USD/CAD currently holding around 1.3650, the market seems to have moved past the geopolitical shock we experienced earlier in the year. This environment favors strategies that profit from range-bound price action and declining volatility. We see this as an opportunity to sell options premium, such as through iron condors or strangles, expecting the pair to remain between roughly 1.35 and 1.38 through the second quarter.

Second Half 2026 Drivers

Looking further ahead, our overall view remains bearish for the U.S. dollar, which should eventually guide USD/CAD lower into the second half of 2026. A key catalyst will be the mandatory review of the USMCA trade agreement, with formal talks scheduled to begin in early July 2026. A successful resolution represents a significant potential upside for the CAD that is not fully priced in.

This outlook allows us to consider longer-term positions that will benefit from a strengthening Canadian dollar. While selling short-term options, we can also begin accumulating longer-dated USD/CAD put options with expirations in the fourth quarter. This provides a cost-effective way to position for a potential move toward our year-end target of 1.34.

This neutral stance is a clear shift from the more dovish commentary we heard from the Bank of Canada for much of 2025 and the beginning of this year. We believe the market has now returned to the trading levels seen before that period of heightened uncertainty. This reinforces the view that near-term price action will be choppy rather than directional.

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