The White House intends to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico next week, regardless of President Trump’s earlier statement indicating a start date in April.

The USDCAD exchange rate experienced a slight increase, reaching 1.4335, after peaking at 1.4366 for the day. The currency pair has surpassed important resistance levels between 1.4268 and 1.42789.

That means Washington is moving faster than expected. The 25% duty on goods from Canada and Mexico will take effect sooner, even though Donald previously mentioned a later timeline. Markets might not have fully adjusted yet.

The rise in USDCAD suggests traders were already positioning for this. Although the pair briefly touched 1.4366, it settled a little lower. That does not mean upward movement is over. It already moved past resistance in the 1.4268–1.4278 range, which could now act as support if the rate pulls back.

We need to watch how Ottawa and Mexico City react. Responses from officials could drive further market shifts. If either country announces countermeasures, traders may adjust quickly. That could mean sharper moves in USDCAD, possibly testing new highs.

At the same time, broader sentiment around the dollar matters. If investors pile into safe-haven assets, that could push the currency even higher, adding to the momentum. On the other hand, any attempt to cool trade tensions might limit further gains, at least temporarily.

Monitoring price action in the coming days will be important. If USDCAD holds above the prior resistance zone, that could reinforce confidence in an extended move. However, a drop below it might suggest a short-term pullback before another attempt higher.

The Fear and Greed Index from CNN Business has dropped to 22, mirroring December’s lows, indicating extreme fear in US stock markets. Historically, this level can signal a buying opportunity, but recent trends suggest caution due to potential market volatility.

The S&P 500 fell below 6000 at the start of the week, failing to push past its 50-day moving average. A slip below 5900 could signal a larger sell-off across equity markets, with further risk if it drops below the 200-day moving average at 5750.

In addition, the Nasdaq100 and Dow Jones have formed double tops, signalling possible trend reversals. Despite this, a typical response would be a rebound towards the upper boundary above 6600, aided by the VIX remaining below 20, which generally indicates a stable market environment.

The drop in sentiment, as measured by the Fear and Greed Index, suggests that investors are becoming wary. Historically, such low readings have often been followed by recoveries, but recent market behaviour demands a more measured approach. When uncertainty rises, it’s easy to look for past patterns, but they don’t always repeat in the same way.

A key concern is that the S&P 500 is struggling to find support. Having dipped under 6000, its inability to reclaim the 50-day moving average suggests that upward momentum is fading. If 5900 fails to hold, selling pressure might intensify, especially as traders watch the 200-day moving average around 5750. A break below that level would indicate a much broader shift in sentiment, forcing both long-term investors and short-term traders to rethink their positions.

At the same time, we must acknowledge the patterns emerging in other indices. The double tops seen in both the Nasdaq100 and Dow Jones signal that they are testing key resistance points. Such formations often suggest the end of an upward phase, though markets do not always react immediately. A brief rally towards resistance near 6600 is still very much in play, especially given that the VIX remains subdued. When volatility stays low, traders tend to assume that corrections will be limited rather than prolonged.

Over the coming weeks, much depends on whether these levels are respected or broken decisively. If buyers step in near current support zones, momentum traders may look for another push higher. Conversely, a failure to hold could bring more defensive positioning, with derivatives traders adjusting their exposure accordingly. The next moves will not be determined by technical factors alone, but they provide a strong foundation for understanding what could unfold.

The AUDUSD has fallen for the third time in four days, with its peak near the 100-day moving average at 0.6407. Today’s trading has been volatile, with support found between 0.6287 and 0.6301, but sellers regained control after a temporary rebound.

During this bounce, the pair reached resistance between 0.6327 and 0.6336, but buying momentum diminished, leading to a decline. Currently, AUDUSD sits just below the 0.6300 level, indicating persistent bearish pressure.

A move below 0.6285, which marks a swing area and the 38.2% retracement level, may result in further downward movement. Conversely, if the 0.6285 level holds, it could prompt a recovery, suggesting the pullback may simply be a standard correction.

The recent movement reflects a market that continues to respond sharply to technical barriers, showing a reluctance to establish firm upward momentum. The earlier test of resistance lacked follow-through from buyers, reinforcing the prevailing downside bias. Selling interest remains dominant, with each attempt to recover meeting fresh offers, keeping upward movements limited.

With the pair hovering just beneath 0.6300, every slight rebound has met resistance before gaining much traction. The rejection from the 0.6330 region earlier in the session suggests sellers are still active at those levels. Without a shift in sentiment or a break above recent highs, downward pressure is likely to persist, keeping the focus on lower support zones.

The 0.6285 mark remains a key threshold. A decisive move below this area could open the door to a more pronounced slide as traders who had been banking on stability in this range may begin to capitulate. This is not just a random number on the chart—it aligns with previous swing levels and a Fibonacci retracement point, which many will be watching closely. If the slide continues, eyes will naturally turn to the next areas of potential buying interest, likely near 0.6250.

For those on the other side of the trade, 0.6285 serves as a line in the sand. As long as selling momentum fails to sustain a break beneath it, rebounds remain an option. This would suggest that what we are seeing now is a natural price adjustment rather than the start of an extended downtrend. A swift reclaiming of 0.6300 or beyond could unsettle recent bearish positioning, forcing an adjustment from those who have been pressing for further weakness.

Looking beyond immediate levels, market participants will need to assess how sentiment develops in response to external economic signals. The sensitivity to technical metrics remains high, but confidence in sustained directional movement remains elusive. Each failed attempt to rally or sell off decisively only feeds into the uncertainty, providing opportunities for those navigating short-term swings.

The Mexican Peso (MXN) is weakening against the US Dollar (USD), with the USD/MXN pair trading at 20.51. This decline is attributed to rising US Treasury yields and trade tensions after President Trump announced a review of copper tariffs.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed concerns about the economy’s fragility, forecasting a possible deficit of $-3.8 billion for Mexico’s Balance of Trade in January. Additionally, Mexico’s unemployment rate is expected to rise from 2.4% to 2.7%, while core inflation increased slightly from 3.61% to 3.63%.

Trade policies continue to drive market sentiment, as Mexico’s Secretary of Commerce calls for improved US-Mexico trade discussions. As negotiations unfold, volatility in the USD/MXN pair may increase.

Technical analysis suggests that if USD/MXN exceeds the 50-day Simple Moving Average at 20.45, it could further climb toward 20.50. Conversely, failure to maintain this level may see the pair retreat to the 100-day SMA at 20.24.

Economic indicators and geopolitical developments remain pivotal for the peso, influencing its value and attractiveness to foreign investors.

The peso’s recent decline makes sense when considering the broader market forces at play. A stronger US dollar, fuelled by rising Treasury yields, pushes investors toward safer assets, weakening demand for emerging market currencies like the peso. The latest tariff review adds yet another layer of trade uncertainty, which markets never take lightly.

Scott’s cautious outlook on Mexico’s trade balance underlines underlying pressure on the peso. A projected deficit of $-3.8 billion suggests more imports than exports, which can weigh on the currency. An unemployment uptick from 2.4% to 2.7% does not seem huge on the surface, but even slight increases can shake investor confidence, especially when paired with stubborn core inflation. While the latest inflation data shows only a marginal rise from 3.61% to 3.63%, it hints that price pressures are not disappearing, which limits the central bank’s ability to cut rates.

Trade discussions remain highly relevant. As Mexico’s Secretary of Commerce pushes for better terms with the US, the peso’s direction will largely depend on how talks progress. Positive developments could help stabilise the currency, while delays or hostile rhetoric might fuel further volatility. With so many factors in motion, sharp price movements in USD/MXN should not come as a surprise.

On the technical front, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 20.45 is an important level to watch. If the pair manages to stay above this threshold, a move toward 20.50 becomes more plausible. However, should it struggle to hold, a retreat toward the 100-day SMA at 20.24 looks likely. These technical markers provide traders with reference points, guiding short-term expectations.

For those following the peso’s trajectory, both economic indicators and trade policies cannot be ignored. With external and internal pressures shaping sentiment, a cautious yet responsive approach will likely serve traders best.

Deutsche Bank has changed its stance on the euro from bearish to neutral, noting a decline from 1.09 to 1.0480 over the past year. This adjustment reflects shifts in political dynamics affecting both sides of the trade.

The three German centrist parties are expected to support a large defence fund, potentially increasing German fiscal capacity. This development is seen as a move towards stability in Ukraine and aligns with a more conservative US fiscal policy, which has led to lower Treasury yields.

The bank perceives risks as evenly balanced for the coming months, with potential downside from trade policies and possible rate changes by the European Central Bank. Conversely, increased German fiscal activity and a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine crisis could present upside potential.

Future shifts in this view depend on developments in defence spending, as the complexity of altering fiscal systems may slow progress. Currently, Deutsche Bank is not anticipating a general weakening of the US dollar but remains attentive to possible indications of further easing from the Federal Reserve.

Deutsche Bank’s reassessment of the euro, moving from a bearish to a neutral stance, is a direct reaction to the changing fiscal and political environment. The drop from 1.09 to 1.0480 over the past year has been influenced not just by market forces but by broader structural shifts on both sides of the trade.

The backing of a substantial defence fund by Germany’s leading centrist parties could change how fiscal policy is managed. Greater flexibility in government spending may create a foundation for stronger economic support, particularly as it relates to stability in Ukraine. At the same time, a more restrained fiscal approach in the US has resulted in lower Treasury yields. These two forces together help shape expectations for the euro’s future direction.

For now, Deutsche Bank sees the risks to the euro as evenly divided. Trade policies continue to pose potential threats, particularly if protectionist measures gain traction. Meanwhile, decisions from European policymakers on interest rates could sway sentiment. On the other hand, an increase in German fiscal spending or a diplomatic breakthrough in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could shift the outlook in the opposite direction. These are not distant concerns—they are factors that could affect volatility in weeks rather than years.

Key developments in defence spending should not be overlooked. While the proposed fiscal measures are gaining political backing, the time required to implement them could be considerable. There is inertia in government budgets, and changing the existing framework rarely happens without delays. Given this, momentum in German spending levels will be watched closely. If capital deployment accelerates, the impact on markets will likely be reflected in how expectations for the euro evolve.

For the US dollar, Deutsche Bank does not currently foresee broad-based declines. That said, markets will remain highly responsive to any indications of further policy easing from the Federal Reserve. Any shift in that direction would introduce another layer of uncertainty, reinforcing why adjustments in positioning should be undertaken with a clear awareness of incoming signals.

In January, new home sales in the United States recorded 0.657 million, falling short of the forecast of 0.68 million. This marks a decrease in momentum for the housing market.

The AUD/USD exchange rate faced a selling trend, with strong support around the 0.6300 level. Meanwhile, EUR/USD struggled to break above 1.0500 and closed below this threshold after recent attempts.

Gold prices rebounded, surpassing $2,900 per troy ounce, as the US Dollar lost momentum ahead of a notable speech by President Trump. In the cryptocurrency market, meme tokens declined amid concerns over tariff threats from Trump.

Inflation in France is expected to drop sharply due to a significant reduction in regulated electricity prices, while the Eurozone experiences mixed trends in pricing, particularly in the services sector.

The housing market in the United States appears to be losing steam, given that new home sales failed to meet expectations. With a reading of 0.657 million instead of the predicted 0.68 million, demand may be weaker than some had anticipated. Traders who factor in housing data when making their decisions should take note, as this shift could have broader economic effects, including on interest rate expectations.

In currency markets, the Australian Dollar encountered resistance, slipping towards the 0.6300 mark where strong support has been visible before. Recent momentum suggests that buyers see value at this level, creating a potential battleground between those who expect further declines and those willing to step in. Meanwhile, the Euro struggled to keep its footing above 1.0500 against the Dollar, failing to sustain any strength. That inability to push higher reflects hesitation in the market, possibly influenced by broader economic uncertainties or shifting expectations for interest rates in the US and Europe.

Gold showed a strong rebound, climbing above $2,900 per troy ounce. The weakening of the Dollar ahead of an anticipated speech by Donald suggests some investors are positioning for potential volatility. Precious metals often see increased demand when confidence in the Dollar wavers, and this latest move reinforces that dynamic.

In the cryptocurrency world, prices for meme tokens faltered, with traders appearing uneasy over Donald’s tariff-related rhetoric. In previous cycles, regulatory and trade policy announcements have triggered sell-offs in speculative corners of the market, and this seems to be another instance of sentiment shifting sharply. This suggests traders are becoming more reactive to political signals, especially where policy may carry inflationary or regulatory risks.

Shifting to inflation data in France, a marked decline is expected, primarily driven by lower regulated electricity costs. This stands in contrast to the broader Eurozone, where pricing trends are diverging. The services sector in particular remains worth watching, as inflationary pressures there do not appear as uniform as in energy markets. Any continued unevenness could complicate monetary policy decisions in the coming weeks.

Bitcoin experienced a notable decline, dropping 22% from its January peak of $109K, appearing to form a double-top pattern. The ongoing issues within the meme coin market, including scams and a decrease in popularity, are affecting cryptocurrency values.

Trump’s official coin peaked at $74 before the inauguration but has now fallen to $12.80, showing a 4% decrease over the past day. Several other coin launches and scams have added to the market’s instability.

A general risk-off sentiment is present across markets, affecting high-profile assets like shares of PLTR, TSLA, and meme stocks. Bitcoin typically reflects broader equity market trends, which are currently negative, with the S&P 500 declining despite an initial rally.

Looking ahead, bitcoin lacks support until it reaches the $80K mark.

This decline in price aligns with concerns surrounding speculative assets, as traders reassess risk exposure. A dip of 22% from its peak suggests that confidence has weakened, and the double-top formation being observed raises questions about whether further downturns lie ahead. Historical chart patterns do not guarantee future performance, but they can influence decision-making, particularly when combined with external pressures such as weakening sentiment in meme coins.

The instability in that corner of the market is not surprising. Excessive hype fuelled by social media tends to accompany these sorts of assets, and once excitement fades, sell-offs accelerate. The crash of the Trump-related token from $74 to $12.80 highlights what happens when speculative enthusiasm collapses. A 4% decline in just a day further reinforces how rapidly prices can erode once momentum turns. Other similar ventures have also failed to sustain their initial appeal, deepening uncertainty across trading desks.

This hesitation is not contained within cryptocurrency alone. Broader sentiment across financial markets is cautious, with moves in PLTR, TSLA, and meme stocks confirming a shift away from riskier positions. Bitcoin typically trends in line with equity markets, particularly during periods of turbulence, and the S&P 500’s struggles reflect that investors are pulling back across multiple sectors. The initial rally that began in equities has now unwound, causing traders to rethink positions.

For bitcoin, the absence of support levels until around $80K means any additional selling pressure could accelerate losses. In past cycles, similar price patterns have resulted in extended drawdowns before finding stability. If traders continue reducing exposure to speculative assets, further downward movement would not be unexpected. Maintaining awareness of broader trends, particularly in equities, remains essential, as bitcoin’s correlation with traditional markets remains intact.

Nvidia plans to release its Q4 FY2025 earnings report after the market closes today, covering the period from 1 November 2024 to 31 January 2025. This report is highly anticipated as Nvidia is the last of the Magnificent Seven stocks to report earnings.

Analysts expect Nvidia’s revenue to reach US$38.1 billion for Q4 FY2025, representing a 73% year-on-year increase. Projected net income is US$21.08 billion, an increase from the previous year’s US$12.84 billion, while adjusted Earnings Per Share is estimated at US$0.84, up 62% year-on-year.

The stock’s implied volatility indicates potential price movements of 8%, though this measurement can be unreliable. Concerns exist regarding the Blackwell chip supply; however, if mentioned negatively, some may view it as a buying opportunity due to anticipated temporary issues.

Despite a dip from Chinese AI competitor DeepSeek, Nvidia’s CEO believes that the company’s chips will remain central to the AI space. All major US Hyperscalers have confirmed ongoing investments in AI data centres, despite Microsoft’s recent lease cancellations.

Technically, Nvidia’s stock is currently trading at levels similar to mid-2024, following a completed double-top pattern with a profit target of US$105.30. If earnings are disappointing, reaching this target would require a drop of 16.7%.

Nvidia’s earnings release today will be closely watched, given that it is the final Magnificent Seven member to report this quarter. With revenue expected to hit **$38.1 billion**, showing a **73% climb** from the same period last year, it is clear that expectations are elevated. Profit estimates point to over **$21 billion**, which is a major leap from the previous **$12.84 billion**. This growth, paired with a forecasted **62% rise in adjusted EPS**, indicates that demand for Nvidia’s chips remains extremely high.

The market has priced in a potential **8% move** in either direction, though it is worth remembering that implied volatility often miscalculates actual post-earnings movements. If traders misjudge momentum, we could see reactions that don’t align with expectations. Investors have been cautious about the supply for Blackwell chips, which was already a topic of discussion, but any new updates could sway sentiment heavily. Should concerns be overemphasised, some will likely view such a dip as a moment to buy, expecting supply conditions to normalise.

During the quarter, DeepSeek’s entrance into the AI chip space added some pressure, although Jensen remains confident that Nvidia’s core technology will remain ahead. Given that major cloud providers continue investing in AI infrastructure, it suggests industry spending plans are intact. Even Microsoft’s decision to back out of certain leases hasn’t altered that trend, reinforcing that the sector’s expansion is still well-supported.

Technically, the stock has revisited levels last seen in mid-2024. A **double-top pattern** earlier pointed to a **$105.30 target**, which would require Nvidia to **fall 16.7%** from current prices. That objective remains distant unless the earnings release delivers a downside surprise of larger-than-expected magnitude.

Tariffs on Canada and Mexico, initially set for March 4, have been postponed to April 2 by Trump. He made this announcement after a cabinet meeting at the White House.

Despite earlier statements affirming the tariffs would proceed, he later indicated they would not take effect until the new date. The proposed 25% reciprocal tariffs are not likely to impact Canada and Mexico significantly, as most trade is already tariff-free.

Market reactions remained muted, with the USD/CAD exchange rate only declining slightly. Trump’s comments also showed inconsistencies regarding conditions related to fentanyl and tariff implementation.

Delaying the tariffs by nearly a month gives businesses more time to adjust, but it also introduces a level of market uncertainty. Short-term traders must pay close attention to any shifts in messaging, particularly as Trump’s previous statements on tariffs have changed without much warning. If anything, this suggests that further revisions to the timeline are not out of the question.

For those of us monitoring the USD/CAD movements, the limited reaction indicates that markets had largely priced in these tariffs—or at least the ongoing threats of them. The minor decline in the currency pair highlights the extent to which broader factors, such as interest rate expectations and economic data, still carry more weight than policy shifts that have been flagged well in advance.

However, attention should not drift too far from the inconsistencies in his messaging. Specifically, linking fentanyl policy to trade restrictions creates an unpredictable element. Any abrupt connection between unrelated policies can mean sudden volatility. If further comments emerge tying drug enforcement to tariff decisions, expect knee-jerk reactions, especially in short-term trading strategies.

April 2 now serves as the next key date, though previous experience suggests that traders should remain flexible. If another extension is announced—or if exemptions are widened—then any expectation of certainty would be misplaced. Instead, keeping a close watch on official statements and any policy leaks will be essential in determining positioning ahead of time.

From our perspective, the best course of action involves staying responsive rather than assuming decisions will hold firm. Given the administration’s history of shifting timelines, no one should be caught off guard by further adjustments. It’s not about assuming that changes will happen, but rather about preparing for every possibility.

Ultimately, the current muted response should not lead to complacency. The real impact, if any, will depend on whether further trade barriers emerge or if the timeline holds this time. Either way, volatility remains a possibility, and being ready for unexpected developments will be key for those navigating these markets.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) has fallen to approximately 1.2660 against the USD during North American trading hours. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded after reaching a near 11-week low earlier in the day.

US Treasury yields are recovering, with 10-year yields climbing to 4.33% after briefly hitting a two-month low. This recovery follows the House advancing a $4.5 trillion tax cut plan, which may increase inflationary pressures and impact the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions.

Traders are adjusting their expectations regarding Fed rate cuts after disappointing service sector activity was reported. The likelihood of a rate cut in June has risen to 65%, while the Fed is expected to maintain current borrowing rates at 4.25%-4.50% in upcoming meetings.

Upcoming data releases on US Durable Goods Orders and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) will be closely monitored for insights into US monetary policy. PCE inflation data is particularly significant in assessing future Fed actions.

The GBP shows strength against most currencies except the USD. Comments from a Bank of England (BoE) member suggested a preference for more significant interest rate cuts than previously anticipated, with the BoE having already reduced rates to 4.5%.

Uncertainty surrounds the UK economy, partly due to potential tariffs from the US. The GBP has dropped to around 1.2640 against the USD, maintaining pressure around the 200-day Exponential Moving Average.

Key support for GBP/USD is at the February 11 low of 1.2333, while resistance levels are identified at 1.2767 and 1.2927. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, a crucial inflation measure, will be released on February 28, 2025, with expectations set at a 2.6% increase.

The recent fall of the Pound Sterling to around 1.2660 against the US dollar highlights continued volatility in the FX markets. The rebound of the US Dollar Index, making up for its earlier slump to an 11-week low, further underscores how quickly market sentiment can shift.

Meanwhile, US Treasury yields are making their way back up, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.33% after briefly dipping to a two-month low. The movement in yields follows legislative progress on a $4.5 trillion tax cut plan, which could put further upward pressure on inflation. This, in turn, complicates the Federal Reserve’s position on interest rate policy. If inflation expectations continue to rise, rate cuts may be delayed, affecting dollar strength and wider market dynamics.

Traders have adjusted their outlook on when the Fed may start lowering rates. With weaker-than-expected service sector data, the probability of a rate cut in June has gone up to 65%, but for now, rates are projected to stay at 4.25%-4.50%. We need to keep an eye on upcoming US economic reports, particularly Durable Goods Orders and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. The latter is especially relevant since the Fed relies heavily on it when determining future policy decisions.

Sterling is showing resilience against various other currencies, with the exception of the US dollar. Remarks from one of the Bank of England’s policymakers suggest a preference for larger rate reductions than the market had previously priced in. Given the BoE has already lowered rates to 4.5%, any further cuts could weigh on the pound, particularly against the greenback. Separately, uncertainty over possible US tariffs on British goods further clouds the outlook, adding another layer of pressure on Sterling.

As it stands, GBP/USD remains around 1.2640, hovering near the 200-day Exponential Moving Average. Important support sits at the February 11 low of 1.2333, while resistance levels at 1.2767 and 1.2927 could set the next key hurdles. With the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index scheduled for release on 28 February 2025, and expectations centring on a 2.6% increase, the market will have another vital gauge of inflation to digest.

In the coming weeks, traders in FX and derivatives markets need to account for how these developments shape future price action. Sharp swings in rate expectations and inflation data can create quick and decisive moves, meaning being prepared for sudden shifts in sentiment is just as important as the longer-term outlook.