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Data shows gold prices in India increased, with FXStreet figures indicating a rise during Tuesday’s trading session

Gold prices rose in India on Tuesday, based on FXStreet-compiled data. Gold was priced at INR 15,891.23 per gram, up from INR 15,775.35 on Monday. The price per tola increased to INR 185,352.20 from INR 184,000.60 a day earlier. Other listed prices were INR 158,912.30 for 10 grams and INR 494,273.30 per troy ounce.

India Gold Price Conversion Method

FXStreet derives India gold prices by converting international prices using the USD/INR rate and local units. Prices are updated daily using market rates at the time of publication and are for reference, as local rates may vary. Central banks are the largest holders of gold and added 1,136 tonnes worth about $70 billion to reserves in 2022, according to the World Gold Council. This was the highest annual purchase since records began, with emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey increasing reserves. Gold often moves inversely to the US Dollar and US Treasuries, and can also move opposite to risk assets such as equities. Its price can be influenced by geopolitical risks, recession concerns, interest rates, and changes in the US Dollar, since gold is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). The recent uptick in gold prices to over 15,800 INR per gram is getting our attention, especially with its inverse relationship to the US dollar. This move comes as the US dollar index has slipped below 102.0 in late February 2026, a significant drop from its highs in late 2025. Central bank demand also remains a strong floor under the market, with World Gold Council data for the fourth quarter of 2025 showing net purchases remained robust at over 250 tonnes.

Positioning With Options And Futures

Given this bullish momentum, we are looking at buying call options to gain upside exposure while limiting risk. Implied volatility in gold options has been creeping up, with the CBOE Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) rising 5% over the last month, suggesting the market is pricing in larger price swings ahead. This makes entry timing critical, as option premiums are becoming more expensive. For those with higher conviction, long positions in gold futures could provide more direct, leveraged exposure to any price increases. We also see this as a key moment to use gold derivatives as a portfolio hedge. With recent Q4 2025 GDP figures from the Eurozone coming in weaker than expected, adding gold exposure can help offset potential downturns in global equity markets. However, we must remain cautious about any surprisingly strong US economic data, such as an upcoming non-farm payrolls report beating expectations. Such an event could quickly reverse the dollar’s weakness and put immediate pressure on gold prices. Therefore, holding some out-of-the-money put options could serve as a cheap insurance policy against a sudden bearish reversal. Looking back, we remember how gold consolidated and faced headwinds during the aggressive interest rate hikes of 2024. That period showed us just how sensitive the metal is to hawkish central bank policy. The market’s current expectation of a more dovish Federal Reserve in 2026 is a primary driver, so we must watch their communications very closely. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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AUD/USD rises near 0.7110, aiming above 0.7150, as the Aussie gains on hawkish RBA signals

AUD/USD rose 0.2% to about 0.7110 in Asian trade on Tuesday, as the Australian Dollar outperformed after comments from RBA Governor Michele Bullock. She said the board is uncertain whether financial conditions are restrictive enough to return inflation to the midpoint of the target within a reasonable timeframe. Bullock also referred to rising inflation pressures linked to the war in the Middle East, and said the central bank is positioned to respond. In February, the RBA lifted its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% and left scope for further tightening.

Dollar Supported By Safe Haven Demand

The US Dollar stayed broadly firm on safe-haven demand amid the war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. Factory-gate inflation data also supported expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates steady in the near term. The ISM Manufacturing PMI showed the Prices Paid sub-index jumped to 70.5, versus 59.5 expected and 59.0 previously. Technically, AUD/USD is holding above the rising 20-day EMA, while the 14-day RSI remains above 60.00. Support is seen at 0.7050, then 0.7000 and the February 6 low near 0.6900. Resistance is around the three-year high at 0.7150, with 0.7200 above that. Looking back to early 2025, we were positioned for a fresh upside move in AUD/USD above 0.7150, driven by a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia. That bullish momentum we saw ultimately stalled, as the global economic picture shifted throughout the year. The pair failed to hold those highs and has since established a much lower trading range.

Rate Differentials And China Risks

The RBA did follow through on its hawkish stance, eventually lifting its Official Cash Rate to 4.35%, where it remains today. However, with the latest quarterly inflation figures now moderating to 3.4%, the urgency for further hikes has disappeared. The central bank is now in a clear holding pattern, removing a key pillar of support for the Aussie dollar. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve has also held its policy rate firm in the 5.25-5.50% range, creating a significant interest rate advantage for the US dollar. This rate differential, which heavily influences currency flows, continues to pressure the AUD/USD pair, which is currently struggling around the 0.6600 level. The safe-haven demand for the dollar also remains a background theme, given ongoing global tensions. Adding to the headwinds for the Australian dollar are persistent concerns about the economic health of its largest trading partner, China. Recent data, like the Caixin Manufacturing PMI coming in just under the expansionary 50 mark at 49.5, reinforces a cautious outlook on demand for Australian commodities. This acts as a cap on any potential rallies for the Aussie. Given this environment, we believe the upside for AUD/USD is limited in the coming weeks. Traders should consider selling out-of-the-money call options to collect premium, targeting strikes around the 0.6750 level. This strategy benefits from range-bound price action or a slow grind lower. The main risk to this view would be a surprisingly strong Australian inflation report or a sudden dovish pivot from the US Fed, which could cause a sharp spike in the pair. Therefore, managing position size is critical, and traders could use a portion of the premium collected from selling calls to purchase cheaper, further out-of-the-money puts as a hedge against an unexpected downturn. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Data show gold prices in Malaysia increased today, with FXStreet’s compiled figures indicating a rise overall

Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Tuesday, based on FXStreet data. Gold was priced at MYR 678.06 per gram, up from MYR 673.00 on Monday. Gold increased to MYR 7,909.00 per tola from MYR 7,849.75 a day earlier. FXStreet listed unit prices as MYR 6,780.76 for 10 grams and MYR 21,089.92 per troy ounce.

Malaysia Gold Price Methodology

FXStreet estimates Malaysia’s gold prices by converting international rates using USD/MYR and local measures. The figures are updated daily at the publication time and are for reference, as local prices may vary slightly. Central banks are the largest holders of gold. World Gold Council data shows central banks added 1,136 tonnes of gold worth about $70 billion in 2022, the highest annual total since records began. Gold prices can move with shifts in the US Dollar and US Treasuries, and they often move in the opposite direction. Prices may also change with interest rates, stock market moves, geopolitical events, and recession fears. The recent strength in gold, with prices rising again today, suggests a positive outlook for the coming weeks. We see this as a continuation of the trend from late 2025, fueled by expectations of shifting monetary policy. Derivative traders should consider positioning for further upside, as gold’s safe-haven appeal is being reinforced.

Central Bank Demand And Market Outlook

Central bank buying continues to provide a strong floor for prices, removing significant supply from the market. Looking back, we saw them add over 1,037 tonnes to their reserves in 2025, nearly matching the record pace of the prior two years. This persistent demand signals a long-term strategic interest in the metal as a reserve asset. Gold is a yield-less asset, and its prospects look brighter as interest rates are expected to fall. After a long period of high rates, markets are now pricing in a greater than 70% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut by mid-year, which would weaken the dollar. A softer dollar makes gold cheaper for foreign buyers, which should further boost demand. Lingering geopolitical tensions also support the case for holding gold as a hedge against uncertainty. Furthermore, while inflation has cooled from the highs we saw in 2024, it remains sticky and above the 2% target in most Western economies. This environment makes gold an attractive store of value for those looking to protect their purchasing power. For traders using options, buying call spreads could be an effective strategy to gain bullish exposure with a defined risk. This allows participation in potential upward moves while limiting the cost of entry in a market that has already seen a significant run-up. Volatility is expected to pick up around central bank meetings, making defined-risk strategies particularly prudent. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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EUR/JPY dips near 183.90 as yen gains on Middle East tensions, yet trend stays above EMA

EUR/JPY trades slightly lower near 183.90 in early European trading on Tuesday, after moving below 184.00. The broader uptrend is still in place while price stays above the 100-day EMA at about 181.20. The Yen gains as demand for safer assets rises amid Middle East tensions. Support also comes from hawkish comments by Bank of Japan policymakers.

Eurozone Inflation In Focus

Markets are waiting for the Eurozone’s preliminary HICP inflation data due later on Tuesday. A higher reading could support the Euro against the Yen. On the daily chart, price has slipped back towards 183.25–183.50 after failing to hold above recent highs near 186.00. The Bollinger midline is near 183.40, and RSI is in the low-50s after easing from stronger levels. First support is at 183.40, then 182.50, and then the 100-day EMA near 181.20. Resistance is at 185.00, followed by 186.00 and the upper Bollinger Band near 186.25. If the pair stays below 185.00, it may consolidate or drift towards 182.50. A daily close above 186.00 would point back to the wider uptrend.

Short Term Strategy Considerations

Given the current price action around 183.90, we see a short-term consolidation phase for EUR/JPY. While the broader uptrend from the past couple of years remains, the failure to push past 186.00 suggests buying momentum is fading. For the next week or two, range-bound strategies seem most appropriate. The yen is getting a boost from more than just geopolitical jitters. We’ve just seen the minutes from the Bank of Japan’s January 2026 meeting, which showed a more serious debate about ending their ultra-loose policy than previously expected. With core inflation in Tokyo staying above 2% for over 20 consecutive months, the market is pricing in a higher chance of a policy shift this year, supporting the JPY. On the other side, the Eurozone’s preliminary inflation numbers for February 2026 just came in at 2.1%, slightly hotter than the 1.9% forecast. After the European Central Bank paused its hiking cycle in late 2025, this persistent inflation makes them less likely to talk about rate cuts soon. This dynamic is likely what is keeping the pair from falling more sharply. Considering this tug-of-war, selling out-of-the-money call options with a strike price at or above the 185.00 resistance level could be a viable strategy. This allows traders to collect premium, capitalizing on the view that the cross will struggle to break new highs in the immediate future. The primary risk is a sudden surge in Eurozone inflation data that pushes the pair through that resistance. For those holding long-term bullish positions, the current dip is a cause for caution but not panic. Buying protective put options with a strike near 182.00 could serve as a cheap form of insurance. This would shield profits from a potential deeper correction toward the critical 100-day moving average support level around 181.20. We must remember the significant run-up we witnessed through 2024 and 2025, so this period of sideways movement is not unexpected. The key level to watch remains that 100-day average near 181.20. A firm break below that would signal a more significant shift in the trend we’ve been riding. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Driven by safe-haven demand, the US Dollar Index holds near 98.50 after previous session’s 1% rise

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar against six major currencies, steadied around 98.50 in Asian trading on Tuesday. It followed nearly 1% gains in the prior session, with demand rising amid the Middle East war. US President Donald Trump said a “big wave” of strikes against Iran is still to come. Marco Rubio said the United States is preparing for a “major uptick” in attacks in Iran over the next 24 hours.

Escalation In The Middle East

The United States and Israel hit thousands of targets inside Iran during a joint campaign. The report said this followed the killing of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Reuters cited Ebrahim Jabari, an adviser to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander-in-chief, saying: “The Strait of Hormuz is closed.” He added that any ships attempting passage would be set ablaze by Revolutionary Guards and the regular navy. In US data, the ISM Manufacturing PMI eased to 52.4 in February from 52.6 in January, above the 51.8 forecast. The Manufacturing Employment Index rose to 48.8 from 48.1, remaining below 50. The dollar also drew support from expectations that higher energy prices could raise inflation and reduce the likelihood of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. Higher energy costs also weighed on currencies in major energy-importing economies, including Europe and Japan.

Market Implications And Positioning

Looking back to early 2025, we saw the US Dollar Index surge as the conflict with Iran escalated and key shipping lanes were threatened. The flight to safety was immediate, driving the dollar higher as concerns over a wider war grew. This initial move was a clear signal of the market’s response to geopolitical instability in the Middle East. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused a massive energy price shock that rippled through the global economy for the rest of that year. Brent crude oil prices spiked to over $150 per barrel by June 2025, pushing US headline CPI inflation up to a painful 5.8% by the fourth quarter. This forced the Federal Reserve not only to scrap any plans for rate cuts but to implement two more hikes, bringing the Fed funds rate to its current 6.0% level. Today, the dollar’s dominance continues, with the DXY now firmly entrenched above the 105 level as high interest rates and safe-haven demand provide dual support. Currencies of major energy importers have suffered immensely, with the Japanese Yen weakening past 160 to the dollar. In Europe, persistently high energy costs have kept the Euro below parity with the USD for several months. Given this sustained trend, we should consider using call options on the UUP exchange-traded fund to maintain long exposure to the dollar while defining our risk. Continuing to buy puts on the Euro and Yen also makes sense, as their economies show little sign of overcoming the energy cost burden. These positions capitalize on the clear divergence in central bank policy and economic outlook. Volatility in the energy sector will remain extremely high, making it a difficult market for directional bets. A better approach is to trade the volatility itself by using long straddles or strangles on WTI crude oil futures. This strategy will profit from the large price swings that are likely to continue as long as tensions in the Middle East remain unresolved. The sustained high-rate environment has also put significant pressure on the stock market, with the S&P 500 having entered a bear market in late 2025. We should expect this pressure to persist as borrowing costs weigh on corporate earnings. Purchasing VIX call options or puts on major equity indices like the SPY remains a prudent hedge against further market declines in the coming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Geopolitical tensions and central-bank divergence push GBP/JPY below 211.00, capping recovery near 211.35

GBP/JPY met selling near 211.35 in Asian trading on Tuesday, after rebounding from 209.00, a four-day low. It then slipped back under 211.00, with limited follow-through. Sterling weakened amid UK political uncertainty following the Green Party’s victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election. The result raised questions over Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership, while expectations for Bank of England easing also weighed on the pound.

Policy Divergence In Focus

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey told Parliament’s Treasury Committee last week there is scope for rate cuts, with inflation expected to return to the 2% target. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said last Thursday the bank’s stance is to keep raising rates if its economic and price forecasts are met. Geopolitical tensions supported demand for the Japanese yen as a safe-haven currency, adding pressure to GBP/JPY. However, Tokyo core consumer inflation fell below the BoJ’s 2% target for the first time since 2024, according to data released last Friday. Reports also said Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi voiced reservations about further tightening in a meeting with the BoJ governor. This reduced expectations for an immediate rate rise and limited yen strength. We remember the monetary policy divergence between the Bank of England and Bank of Japan that was becoming clear in 2025. This gap has since widened, with the Bank of England having delivered two rate cuts late last year while the Bank of Japan officially ended its negative interest rate policy in October 2025. Consequently, the GBP/JPY cross has trended lower and is now trading with less conviction around the 205.50 level.

Trading Strategies And Risk Management

The political instability that we saw weaken the Pound last year has persisted, creating a difficult environment for the currency. With the latest data showing UK GDP contracted by 0.1% in the final quarter of 2025, markets are now pricing in a 60% chance of another Bank of England rate cut by June. This underlying weakness suggests traders should consider buying put options to protect against a further slide below the key 205.00 level. On the other side of the trade, the Japanese Yen continues to draw strength from both geopolitical tensions and a hawkish central bank. Tokyo’s core inflation for February 2026 unexpectedly rose to 2.1%, putting pressure on the Bank of Japan to signal another rate hike in the second quarter. This ongoing policy differential makes shorting GBP/JPY futures a compelling strategy over the next several weeks. Implied volatility in the currency pair has increased from around 9% in mid-2025 to over 11% today, reflecting the growing certainty of this policy divergence. Given this environment, a bear put spread could be an effective strategy to position for downside while managing the higher cost of options. This allows for a targeted bet on further GBP/JPY weakness without being fully exposed to sharp, unexpected reversals. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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Donald Trump promised imminent retaliation for the Riyadh embassy attack and deaths of US military personnel in Iran conflict

US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the United States will soon announce its response to an attack on the US embassy in Riyadh and to the deaths of US military personnel during the Iran conflict. The US embassy in Saudi Arabia was hit by two drones, causing a limited fire and some material damage. Trump said he does not think “boots on the ground” will be necessary in Iran.

Market Reaction So Far

At the time of writing, gold (XAU/USD) was up 0.49% on the day at $5,358. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was up 0.40% on the day at $71.60. Given the heightened geopolitical tension from last year, we should expect a significant increase in market volatility. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which has been hovering near a relatively low 14 in early 2026, is likely to spike. Traders should consider buying near-term call options on the VIX to profit from this expected rise in market fear. The direct threat to Middle East stability puts upward pressure on crude oil prices. We saw a similar, though more severe, reaction after the 2019 attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities, when Brent crude jumped nearly 20% in a single day. With recent EIA data from February 2026 already showing tighter-than-expected inventories, buying call options on WTI or Brent futures is a direct way to trade the risk of supply disruption. As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold is poised to benefit from this uncertainty. The initial price jump mirrors the rally we observed in early 2020 following the conflict that killed an Iranian general, where gold surged over 3.5% in less than a week. We should anticipate further capital flows into gold, making call options on XAU/USD a prudent move to hedge against escalating conflict. Broader equity markets will likely face downward pressure as investors move away from risk. Buying put options on major indices like the S&P 500 (SPY) or the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) can serve as a hedge for existing portfolios. This strategy protects against a market downturn driven by war fears and rising energy costs.

Sector Opportunities

Sector-specific plays will also become important in the coming weeks. The energy sector, tracked by ETFs like XLE, should outperform as oil prices rise, making call options attractive. Conversely, industries sensitive to high fuel costs, such as airlines and transportation, are vulnerable, creating opportunities to buy put options on ETFs like JETS. These derivative positions should be viewed as tactical, likely using options expiring in the next 30 to 60 days to capture the most immediate price movements. We remember from past events that the market’s initial reaction is often the most severe. The key will be to monitor the official US response and de-escalation signals closely. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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CNBC says Iran launched missiles and drones, striking Riyadh’s US embassy amid wider Gulf attacks

Iran fired missiles and drones at several Persian Gulf countries, including a drone strike that hit the US Embassy in Riyadh, CNBC reported on Tuesday. A Saudi Defence Ministry spokesperson said the embassy was attacked with two drones. The spokesperson said the attack caused a limited fire and minor material damage to the building. No other details were provided.

Market Reaction And Immediate Positioning

Gold (XAU/USD) was 0.49% higher at $5,358 at the time of writing. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was up 0.40% at $71.60. We should anticipate a significant spike in market volatility, as measured by the VIX, in the immediate future. This direct attack on a US embassy by a state actor is a major escalation that will inject fear into global markets. Consequently, we are buying VIX call options to profit from the rising cost of portfolio insurance. The initial 0.40% rise in WTI crude oil is a muted reaction that presents a clear opportunity for traders. Looking back at the Abqaiq facility attacks in 2019, which caused Brent crude to jump nearly 20% in a single day, we see a precedent for a much larger price move. We are therefore buying near-term call options on crude futures, anticipating that fears of a disruption to supply through the Strait of Hormuz will drive prices sharply higher. Gold’s move to $5,358 is part of a larger trend, as central bank buying already hit record levels in the final quarter of 2025. This geopolitical crisis will only accelerate the flight to safety and further strengthen the metal’s fundamental support. We see value in adding to long positions through call spreads on gold futures, capitalizing on the upward momentum.

Equity Risk And Hedging Approach

This event is a negative catalyst for equities, which were already facing headwinds from stretched valuations as we came out of 2025. We expect a broad market sell-off as institutions de-risk their portfolios in the face of this new uncertainty. Buying put spreads on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices offers a direct way to hedge existing long positions or speculate on a market downturn. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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During Asian trade, NZD/USD rises to mid-0.5900s as USD eases, but momentum remains limited

NZD/USD rose during Tuesday’s Asian session but stayed near a five-week low set on Monday. It traded in the mid-0.5900s, up 0.15% on the day, helped by a slight pullback in the US Dollar from a Monday peak that was its highest since 20 January. Middle East tensions kept demand for the safe-haven US Dollar firm and limited NZD/USD gains. The US and Israel launched strikes on Iran over the weekend, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Iran then attacked Israel and other Middle Eastern countries.

Middle East Risk Drives Safe Haven Demand

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said shipments through the Strait of Hormuz had stopped. US President Donald Trump said a “big wave” was yet to come, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US was preparing for a major rise in attacks in Iran over the next 24 hours. The US State Department told US citizens to leave countries across the Middle East due to safety risks. A strong US Producer Price Index released last Friday led traders to reduce expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve easing, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has an accommodative policy outlook. The recent escalation in the Middle East, with strikes against Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz last week, has injected significant uncertainty into the market. This geopolitical tension is a powerful driver for the safe-haven US Dollar, making sustained rallies in NZD/USD unlikely. Derivative traders should therefore consider buying options to trade the resulting increase in market volatility. The immediate economic impact we are seeing is a surge in energy prices, with Brent crude futures having already pushed past $95 a barrel following the Hormuz closure. Higher energy costs act as a drag on global growth, which disproportionately hurts risk-sensitive currencies like the New Zealand Dollar. This reinforces the view that the upside potential for the Kiwi is severely limited in the current environment.

Central Bank Divergence Remains A Key Theme

We see a widening divergence in central bank policy that should continue to pressure the NZD/USD pair downwards. The latest US inflation data for January showed consumer prices remained elevated at 3.4%, forcing markets to price out aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts. This contrasts sharply with New Zealand, where the economy contracted by 0.1% in the final quarter of 2025, giving the RBNZ every reason to maintain its accommodative, rate-cutting bias. Key fundamentals for the Kiwi are also flashing warning signs. China’s official manufacturing PMI for February recently registered at a contractionary 49.9, signaling weakening demand from New Zealand’s most important trading partner. Adding to this, we saw dairy prices fall by 2.1% in the latest Global Dairy Trade auction, further clouding the outlook for New Zealand’s export earnings. Given this backdrop, selling into strength appears to be the most viable strategy for the coming weeks. The current bounce to the mid-0.5900s could present a favorable entry point for initiating new short positions or purchasing put options. We should anticipate a retest of the five-week lows near the 0.5880 level as long as geopolitical risks and central bank divergence remain the dominant market themes. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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WTI crude rebounds to near $72, driven by Hormuz closure fears and heightened oil supply worries

WTI US Crude fell slightly in Asian trading, then rose to about $70.00 and reached $71.70 to $71.75. Prices remain near the highest level since June 2025, set on Monday, amid rising Middle East tensions. The US and Israel carried out a joint strike on Iran on Saturday, which killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran responded with missile attacks on US bases and civilian areas in US-allied countries across the Middle East, while US President Donald Trump said strikes would continue as long as necessary.

Strait Of Hormuz Disruption

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said shipments through the Strait of Hormuz had stopped. The strait handles more than 20% of global oil, raising worries about supply disruption. OPEC+ decided to raise output by 206,000 barrels, which limited further price rises. A stronger US Dollar also weighed on dollar-priced commodities. Demand for safe-haven assets and reduced expectations of faster US Federal Reserve rate cuts helped the Dollar hold gains. The Dollar reached its highest level since 20 January, adding pressure to oil prices. The direct military conflict and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz create a textbook supply shock. We should be aggressively buying front-month WTI and Brent futures contracts to position for a rapid price increase. Call options with strike prices in the $80 and $90 range are an effective way to capitalize on this expected upward momentum while defining our risk.

Volatility And Trading Strategy

The removal of nearly 21 million barrels per day of transit through Hormuz makes the announced OPEC+ output increase of 206,000 barrels almost irrelevant. This supply disruption is significantly larger than the 2019 attack on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq facility, which knocked 5.7 million barrels offline and caused an immediate 20% price spike. From our perspective in 2025, the precedent set by the 1990 Gulf War, which saw oil prices more than double in a few months, is the more relevant historical comparison for the potential scale of this event. Implied volatility is going to be extremely high, and we should expect the CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) to soar past the levels seen during the 2022 conflict in Ukraine. This makes buying options, rather than selling them, the prudent strategy for most traders. Long straddles or strangles could be used to trade the violent price swings, but the clear fundamental bias is upward. The strengthening US Dollar, driven by a flight to safety, is the primary factor capping a more explosive rally. While a strong dollar typically weighs on commodity prices, the immediate fear of a massive supply shortage is the dominant market force. We should watch the Dollar Index (DXY) closely, as any pullback would remove this headwind and likely trigger another sharp leg up in crude oil prices. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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