UK housing survey data from RICS showed a house price balance of -23% in March. This was below the forecast of -18%.

The negative balance indicates that more survey respondents reported price falls than rises. The result points to weaker price momentum than expected for March.

Uk Housing Data Signals Faster Slowdown

The March housing price data came in significantly weaker than anyone expected, falling to -23 against a forecast of -18. This is the clearest sign yet that the UK economy is slowing faster than anticipated. We believe this puts immediate pressure on the Bank of England to pivot towards a rate cut sooner than the market has been pricing.

We should anticipate a weakening of the British Pound against the dollar and the euro over the coming weeks. The latest data from the Office for National Statistics shows UK inflation has been stubborn at 2.9%, but this housing report will likely outweigh that, making rate cuts the primary market driver. Therefore, buying put options on GBP/USD with a June expiry looks like a prudent way to position for this expected slide.

This negative housing sentiment directly impacts UK equities, especially domestically-focused companies on the FTSE 250. We expect stocks in the construction and banking sectors to underperform significantly. Looking at options on major housebuilders, we see implied volatility has already jumped 15% this morning, suggesting the market is scrambling to price in this new risk.

From a historical standpoint, this downturn feels more severe than the brief cooling-off period we saw in the third quarter of 2025. Back then, the market bounced back on hopes of a soft landing, but this data suggests the full impact of the rate hikes from 2024 and 2025 is still filtering through the economy. This increases the likelihood that broad market volatility will remain elevated for the next month.

Market Volatility Likely To Stay Elevated

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USD/JPY fell 0.66% on Wednesday, dropping from near 160.00 to around 158.50. The 160.00 area has been tested once since Tokyo’s intervention campaign in July 2024, and the move formed lower highs with price holding just below the 15-minute 200-period EMA into the Asian open.

The drop followed news of a two-week US–Iran ceasefire and Tehran’s agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This reduced demand for safe-haven assets after supporting the US Dollar and crude oil through March, which helped the Yen regain ground.

Ceasefire Risks And Market Framing

The ceasefire remains uncertain, as neither side has signed the underlying 10-point framework. Markets are treating the two-week period as a limited window rather than a full settlement.

Japan’s calendar is light through Friday, while the Bank of Japan is expected to hike on 28 April, with about a 70% probability priced in. US data due includes core PCE and Q4 GDP on Thursday, then March CPI plus University of Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations on Friday.

On the 15-minute chart, USD/JPY was 158.57, below the 200-period EMA at 158.92, with Stochastic RSI near 14. Resistance is near 158.92.

The recent dip in USD/JPY, caused by the temporary US-Iran ceasefire, should be seen as an opportunity to position for high volatility, not a new trend. The two-week agreement is fragile, creating a countdown that could snap safe-haven demand right back into the US Dollar. This pullback below 159.00 gives us a better entry point for strategies that benefit from sharp market swings.

Upcoming US inflation data is the most immediate catalyst and presents a clear trading opportunity. We should consider buying short-dated options straddles to profit from a large price move following the CPI and PCE releases, regardless of the direction. Looking at similar situations, we can recall how the March 2024 CPI report came in hotter than expected at 3.5%, causing a significant repricing in currency markets and showing how a surprise can drive the dollar higher.

BoJ Meeting And Event Risk

On the Japanese side, we should be cautious of the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting on April 28, even with a rate hike heavily priced in. When the BoJ hiked for the first time in 17 years back in 2024, the yen actually weakened as the bank’s forward guidance remained very cautious. A similar “sell the news” reaction is a distinct possibility, making it risky to be outright long the yen into the event.

The fragile geopolitical situation means the risk of the ceasefire failing is high, which would cause the pair to spike back toward 160.00. We can cheaply hedge for this outcome by purchasing out-of-the-money call options. This provides a limited-risk way to profit from a sudden return of the safe-haven bid for the US dollar.

Finally, the 160.00 level remains a critical line in the sand due to the risk of official intervention, which we saw in July 2024. Just as Japan intervened to defend the yen back in 2022, any strong push above 160.00 will likely be met with resistance, making it a key level to sell against. This creates a ceiling on the pair for now, unless a major new catalyst emerges.

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AUD/USD pared back Wednesday’s rally and settled near 0.7050 after rising by more than 1% earlier. It reached a three-week high around 0.7085 following news of a two-week US–Iran ceasefire, then slipped into a tight range ahead of the Asian open.

The ceasefire includes Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which reduced demand for the US Dollar and lifted risk-sensitive currencies. Reports say neither side has committed to the underlying 10-point framework, and the deal is being treated as limited to the two-week window.

Australia Data Outlook

Australia has little domestic data due for the rest of the week. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% at its March meeting, and markets are pricing a possible further move at the May decision as higher energy costs sustain inflation pressure.

US releases take focus, with Thursday due to bring the February core PCE Price Index and fourth-quarter GDP. Friday includes March CPI data and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations surveys.

On a 15-minute chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7047 and remains above the 200-period EMA at 0.7005. The Stochastic RSI is near 71, with support still centred on 0.7005.

We are seeing a familiar pattern of uncertainty in the AUD/USD, now trading near 0.6615. Looking back at the events of 2025, we recall how a temporary US-Iran ceasefire caused a sharp, but ultimately faded, rally towards 0.7085. That price action taught us to question the durability of geopolitical headlines and not chase initial spikes.

Policy Divergence And Volatility

The focus now, much like it was then, is on central bank policy divergence. The Reserve Bank of Australia is holding its cash rate at 4.35%, and with the latest Q1 2026 inflation data coming in stubbornly high at 3.8%, the market has pushed back expectations of any rate cuts until late in the year. This provides a fundamental level of support for the Australian dollar.

On the other side of the pair, the US Federal Reserve is signaling a data-dependent path, with traders hanging on every inflation print. The most recent core PCE reading for March 2026 came in at 2.7%, slightly above forecasts and delaying the timeline for the Fed’s first anticipated rate cut. This keeps the US dollar firm and caps any significant upside for the AUD/USD.

Given this tension, derivative traders should consider strategies that benefit from potential volatility around key data releases, especially the upcoming US CPI report. We see one-month implied volatility for AUD/USD hovering around 9.5%, which is not excessively high given the uncertain macroeconomic backdrop. Purchasing straddles or strangles ahead of the CPI data could be an effective way to position for a significant price move, regardless of the direction.

The technical picture also suggests a period of consolidation before a larger move. While the pair is currently caught in a range, any break driven by surprising inflation data could be swift and significant. We remember from 2025 how quickly sentiment can shift, turning a short-term rally into a pullback when the underlying fundamental story reasserts itself.

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NZD/USD traded near 0.5830 on Thursday, with the New Zealand dollar recovering slightly as geopolitical news shifted. Demand for the US dollar returned as risk mood stayed unstable.

Reports of a ceasefire framework between the United States, Iran, and Israel briefly lifted sentiment. That support faded as conditions remained unresolved and military activity in the Middle East continued.

RBNZ Inflation Growth Tradeoff

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand faces inflation that is still slightly above its 1–3% target band, alongside weak growth. Policymakers have said they may look through energy-led price rises unless they spread to wider inflation.

The Federal Reserve maintained a cautious but firm approach, backed by steady communication and firm yields. FOMC Minutes pointed to a data-dependent stance and noted inflation risks linked to higher oil prices.

On the four-hour chart, NZD/USD was at 0.5822, above the 20-period SMA near 0.5750 and the 100-period SMA around 0.5780. The RSI was near 70, suggesting strong but stretched momentum.

Resistance levels were 0.5839 and 0.5847, then 0.5907, 0.5930, and 0.5965. Support levels were 0.5816 and 0.5809, then 0.5780 and 0.5750.

Base Case Market View

Given the fragile geopolitical situation, we see continued demand for the US Dollar as a safe haven. Any initial optimism about ceasefires is proving temporary, which keeps market uncertainty high. This environment generally puts downward pressure on risk-sensitive currencies like the New Zealand Dollar.

The Federal Reserve’s firm position reinforces this USD strength, especially with recent data supporting their stance. For instance, the latest Non-Farm Payrolls report for March 2026 showed a robust 255,000 jobs added, keeping the pressure on the Fed to hold rates steady. This solid economic backdrop continues to attract capital to the US, strengthening its currency.

On the other hand, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is in a bind, limiting the NZD’s potential. They are hesitant to tighten policy further because recent data showed New Zealand’s GDP contracted by 0.2% in the last quarter of 2025. This focus on weak growth, even with inflation slightly above target, makes the NZD less attractive than the USD.

Looking back, we saw a similar dynamic play out in late 2025 when escalating global trade tensions caused a flight to safety. During that period, NZD/USD fell from around 0.6100 to below 0.5850 in just a few weeks. The current setup feels familiar, suggesting a path of least resistance to the downside for the pair.

The pair is currently testing resistance near 0.5840, and with the Relative Strength Index looking overbought, this rally appears stretched. For derivative traders, this presents an opportunity to consider buying put options. This strategy would allow us to profit from a potential decline back towards the 0.5750-0.5780 support zone.

Specifically, we should look at purchasing May 2026 puts with a strike price around 0.5800. This gives us several weeks for the fundamental pressures to weigh on the currency pair. The cost of these options is relatively low, offering a defined-risk way to position for a downturn.

If this upward momentum surprisingly continues past the 0.5907 resistance level, our bearish view would need to be re-evaluated. However, the combination of a strong USD and a cautious RBNZ suggests that selling into this strength is the more probable strategy. The key risk remains a sudden and lasting improvement in geopolitical stability, which currently seems unlikely.

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AUD/JPY rose as risk appetite improved after a two-week pause in the Middle East conflict between the US and Iran. Israel carried out strikes on Beirut and said Lebanon is not part of the deal, and AUD/JPY traded at 111.79, up 0.39%.

Price action suggests consolidation after an uptrend, with a quasi-shooting star forming and the close set to fall below the candle’s halfway point. This points to weakening upward momentum.

Technical Momentum Signals

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bullish but is sloping down towards the 50 neutral level. A break below 50 would indicate growing selling pressure.

On the upside, a move above the 8 April daily high at 112.38 would target 113.00, with further resistance at 113.96, the 11 March peak. On the downside, a drop to 111.50 could lead to the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 111.02 and the 111.00 level.

If losses extend, the next support is the 50-day SMA at 110.47. That sits ahead of the 110.00 level.

Looking back at the analysis from April 2025, we can see the market was optimistic about a temporary ceasefire, which pushed AUD/JPY higher. However, the technical signals, like the fading RSI and potential shooting star pattern, were already flashing warning signs. Those indicators correctly suggested that the buying momentum was fragile and susceptible to a reversal.

That cautious technical view proved correct as the geopolitical optimism was short-lived, and the pair failed to sustain a break above the 112.38 level. Throughout mid-2025, AUD/JPY fell back towards the support levels mentioned around 111.00 and eventually 110.47. This historical price action confirms that even during periods of positive news flow, weakening technical momentum should not be ignored.

Macro Backdrop And Trade Ideas

Today, the Australian Dollar faces pressure from slowing global growth, with key commodity prices like iron ore recently dropping below $105 per tonne after trading over $130 earlier in the year. Although the Reserve Bank of Australia is holding its cash rate at a firm 4.35% to combat persistent inflation, weakening external demand is capping the Aussie’s upside potential. This situation makes the currency vulnerable, especially against a strengthening Yen.

On the other side of the trade, the Bank of Japan has fundamentally altered the landscape by ending its negative interest rate policy late last year. With the BoJ policy rate now at 0.10% and inflation in Japan holding above 2%, the case for a structurally stronger Yen is gaining traction. This narrowing of the interest rate difference between Australia and Japan removes a key pillar of support that drove AUD/JPY higher for years.

Therefore, derivative traders should consider positioning for further downside in the AUD/JPY pair over the coming weeks. Buying put options with strike prices below 110.00 would provide a clear, risk-defined way to profit from a potential decline toward the 108.50 area. For those less bearish, selling out-of-the-money call options or establishing bear call spreads above 112.50 could be an effective strategy to capitalize on the view that upside is now severely limited.

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NZD/USD rose on Wednesday amid reports of reduced tensions in the Middle East and hawkish remarks from RBNZ Governor Anna Breman after the bank’s policy meeting. It was trading at 0.5816 after rebounding from a daily low of 0.5715, and it reached a two-week high of 0.5860.

The pair was unable to hold above the 200-day SMA at 0.5849, which leaves room for a move back below 0.5800. The RSI moved above 50, pointing to firmer upward momentum.

Key Technical Levels

If NZD/USD regains the 100-day SMA at 0.5840, it may then test the 200-day SMA at 0.5859. A break higher could target 0.5900, then the 50-day SMA at 0.5904, and the March 10 high at 0.5964.

If the pair falls below 0.5800, it may meet support at the 20-day SMA at 0.5784. A further drop could retest the April 8 low at 0.5715, ahead of 0.5700.

Looking back to this time in 2025, we saw the NZD/USD pivot on hopes of Middle East de-escalation and hawkish central bank commentary. The key struggle then was the pair’s failure to hold above the 200-day moving average near 0.5850. That technical indicator correctly signaled a period of consolidation before the pair eventually pushed higher later that year.

The landscape today is fundamentally different. While the pair trades at a healthier 0.6150, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has shifted its stance, initiating a cautious rate-cutting cycle in response to inflation slowing to 3.5% in the first quarter of 2026. This is a stark contrast to the hawkish position that fueled last year’s rally.

Derivatives Strategy Considerations

Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is holding its policy steady as American inflation remains stickier, recently ticking up to 3.6%. This growing divergence in central bank policy, where the RBNZ is easing while the Fed stands firm, is now the primary driver. The interest rate advantage that previously supported the Kiwi is eroding.

Given this setup, derivative traders should consider the reduced potential for significant upside in the coming weeks. Buying put options could be a prudent way to hedge or speculate on a pullback toward the 0.6000 psychological level. Selling out-of-the-money call option spreads could also be an effective strategy to generate income, based on the view that the unfavorable interest rate differential will cap any major rallies.

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Singapore has energy buffers and strong public finances that reduce near-term risks from Middle East tensions. It has established infrastructure, diversified sourcing, strong logistics, large inventories, and the ability to stockpile more fuel or provide targeted support if disruption through the Strait of Hormuz continues.

The energy system includes deep infrastructure and storage, and fuel reserves that remain untapped, with no rationing so far. As a global bunkering hub, Singapore holds large inventories and storage capacity that can help manage temporary supply shocks.

Natural gas accounts for about 95% of electricity generation, and supplies from Qatar may face strain. Mitigation options include LNG imports from Australia and the US, the ability to switch to diesel for electricity generation, and strategic fuel reserves held by the government and power generators.

Risks would increase if energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted for a prolonged period. This supports plans to expand fuel reserves further.

Given the recent spike in market anxiety over Middle East tensions, we see an opportunity in the Singapore Dollar. The city-state’s significant energy infrastructure, diverse supply chains, and large fuel reserves provide a substantial buffer against short-term shocks. This suggests the immediate sell-off in SGD-related assets is likely overdone.

For derivative traders, this points toward selling volatility on the currency in the coming weeks. After 1-month implied volatility on USD/SGD jumped to 7.5% following last week’s incident in the Strait of Hormuz, option premiums now appear rich. The country’s ability to switch from natural gas to diesel for power generation and tap into strategic reserves should anchor the currency, making a sharp breakout less probable.

This view is supported by recent data showing Singapore’s underlying stability. March 2026 core inflation came in at a manageable 3.1%, indicating price pressures are not yet spiraling despite a brief jump in Asian LNG benchmark prices to over $18/mmBtu. The fact that the Monetary Authority of Singapore has not signaled any emergency policy shift reinforces our belief in the currency’s resilience.

Looking back, we saw how Singapore’s fiscal strength allowed it to navigate the energy price chaos of 2022 and 2023 without major economic dislocation. The primary risk to this strategy would be a prolonged, multi-month disruption to energy flows, which would test the limits of those reserves. Therefore, any positions should be managed with a close eye on geopolitical developments beyond the next few weeks.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) stayed near 99.10 late in the US session, helped by safe-haven demand and expectations that the Federal Reserve will stay cautious on easing. The latest FOMC Minutes indicated officials are not in a hurry to cut rates and are maintaining a higher-for-longer approach.

The Minutes also pointed to concerns about persistent inflation risks, including higher energy prices linked to Middle East hostilities. The Fed noted some cooling in parts of the economy, but described inflation progress as uneven.

Geopolitical Risk And Market Skepticism

Geopolitical news remained mixed, with reports of a temporary ceasefire involving the United States, Iran and Israel. Markets showed doubt as conditions linked to the agreement were not yet met and tensions continued in the region.

EUR/USD rose towards 1.1720 before easing to about 1.1650, while GBP/USD traded near 1.3380 after reaching 1.3484. USD/JPY moved down towards 158.70, and AUD/USD held near 0.7030 after earlier trading around 0.7080.

WTI oil fell to $95.00 per barrel, while gold traded near $4,709. Upcoming data includes Germany trade balance, US PCE, US GDP, US initial jobless claims, US personal income and spending, NZ PMI, and China CPI and PPI on April 9; then Germany HICP, Canada jobs, US CPI, US factory orders, US Michigan consumer index, US UoM inflation expectations, and the US monthly budget statement on April 10.

The Federal Reserve’s commitment to a “higher-for-longer” rate policy is keeping the US Dollar strong. We should prepare for this trend to continue, especially with key PCE and GDP data coming out today. This data will likely reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance on inflation, adding further support to the dollar.

Given this outlook, we should consider buying put options on pairs like EUR/USD and AUD/USD, targeting expiries in May or June to capitalize on sustained dollar strength. We saw how sticky Core PCE remained above the Fed’s target throughout late 2025, consistently printing around 2.8%. Any similar upside surprise in today’s data could trigger a sharp downward move in these pairs.

Positioning For Volatility

With conflicting headlines from the Middle East and the upcoming US CPI report, market volatility is a near certainty. A straddle on an S&P 500 ETF or the VIX itself could be a prudent way to trade the uncertainty without picking a direction. This protects us from being on the wrong side of a sudden geopolitical flare-up or a surprising inflation print.

The recent drop in WTI to $95 offers a potential entry point for bullish positions through call options. The market is skeptical of the ceasefire, and we only have to look back to the price shocks of late 2025 to see how quickly supply fears can cause a 10% weekly surge. These geopolitical premiums can reappear in an instant, making cheap calls an attractive risk-reward play.

While gold is a natural safe haven, its price near $4,709 makes it an expensive hedge right now. We can use bull call spreads to maintain upside exposure to geopolitical risk at a lower cost and with defined risk. This allows us to participate if tensions escalate further without taking on the full risk of an outright long position at these elevated levels.

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BNP Paribas analysis says demand remains the main driver of inflation in the United States, but its impact has eased from post‑Covid peaks. The review uses Bureau of Economic Analysis data and a San Francisco Fed method developed by A. Shapiro to split inflation into demand and supply contributions.

It finds the supply contribution is lower than in 2022, but still present, and close to 2018–19 levels. The report links ongoing supply pressures to tariffs, higher input prices and longer delivery times, with constraints said to have edged up since the Trump administration’s tariff rises.

Demand And Supply Components

Demand still contributes more than supply, in line with resilient consumption and its post‑Covid outperformance. It also notes that this demand momentum has moderated in recent months, alongside a weakening labour market.

The article states it was produced with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.

We are seeing a clear shift in what is driving inflation as of April 2026. While strong demand was the main story through much of 2025, its influence is now fading, yet inflation remains stubborn. The latest March Core PCE data, which came in at a persistent 3.1%, shows that supply-side issues are keeping prices elevated more than many expected.

These supply constraints are becoming more apparent and feel similar to the 2018-2019 period. March’s ISM manufacturing survey confirmed this, with the prices paid index jumping unexpectedly and supplier delivery times slowing for the second consecutive month. This suggests that ongoing trade frictions and higher input costs are creating a floor for inflation that monetary policy has difficulty addressing.

Market Trading Implications

This dynamic is happening just as the labor market is finally showing signs of cooling. The last jobs report revealed job growth slowing and the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.2%, confirming the trend of weakening demand we have been watching. This combination of moderating growth and sticky supply-driven inflation puts the Federal Reserve in a difficult position, reducing the odds of rate cuts in the second quarter.

For traders, this environment of high uncertainty suggests a focus on interest rate volatility. With the Fed likely on hold but data becoming more erratic, options on SOFR futures could be valuable. Betting on a rise in volatility, rather than a specific direction in rates, allows for profiting from the market’s indecision over the next several weeks.

The yield curve also presents opportunities based on this view. A scenario where the Fed holds rates high to fight sticky inflation while economic growth softens is a classic recipe for a flattening or more inverted curve. We see value in positions that anticipate short-term rates remaining anchored while long-term yields fall on growth concerns.

Given this backdrop, implied volatility in the equity market looks relatively cheap. The VIX, currently hovering around 18, may not fully price in the risk of a policy error where the Fed keeps rates too high for a slowing economy. Buying protection or betting on a spike in volatility could be a prudent hedge against the growing economic crosscurrents.

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The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell about 1% on Wednesday, sliding from near 100.00 to around 98.50 after a US-Iran ceasefire announcement. It later rose back above 99.00 as doubts grew over the truce.

President Donald Trump announced a two-week “double-sided ceasefire” with Iran, brokered by Pakistan and linked to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. After the news, crude oil dropped over 15% and global equities rose.

Ceasefire Doubts And Market Reaction

Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused the US and Israel of breaching the truce. Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu said the ceasefire “does not include Lebanon” and Israel struck Hezbollah targets in Beirut and southern Lebanon.

Iran’s Fars news agency said oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz stopped again after the strikes. Iran said it would leave the agreement if fighting in Lebanon continued.

FOMC Minutes for 17–18 March showed the fed funds rate was held at 3.50% to 3.75% by an 11 to 1 vote, with Governor Stephen Miran backing a 25 basis point cut. Many policymakers said inflation could stay high and “could call for rate increases”, and options pricing put the chance of hikes through early next year at about 30%.

Core PCE is due Thursday and March CPI on Friday. DXY was at 99.12, below the 200-period EMA at 99.33.

Looking Back At 2025 And The Dollar

Looking back at the events of 2025, we can see the brief collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire was a major turning point for the US Dollar. The DXY’s sharp rebound from the 98.50 level demonstrated how quickly safe-haven demand can return when geopolitical agreements falter. This sensitivity to Mideast tensions remains a critical factor for us to watch today.

The hawkish FOMC minutes from March 2025 were a clear warning that was ultimately realized. The persistent inflation, fueled by the conflict’s impact on oil prices, prevented the Fed from cutting rates and kept the dollar strong throughout the end of 2025. In fact, the most recent CPI report for March 2026 showed core inflation remains sticky at 3.1%, justifying the Fed’s continued cautious stance.

As a result, the DXY never returned to those 2025 lows and has instead established a firm base above the 104.00 level for most of this year. We saw how quickly the market repriced rate cut expectations last year, and this historical price action suggests that any fresh inflation scares will likely support the dollar. This makes shorting the dollar a risky proposition in the current environment.

The market is now pricing in this risk, with implied volatility on major currency options seeing a steady rise since January. One-month implied volatility for EUR/USD, for example, is currently hovering around 8.2%, up significantly from the sub-6% levels we saw late last year. This shows traders are actively hedging against the kind of sudden price swings that last year’s ceasefire news triggered.

Given this backdrop, we should consider strategies that benefit from dollar strength or rising volatility in the coming weeks. Buying call options on the Dollar Index provides a defined-risk way to position for another move higher driven by geopolitical risk or stubborn inflation data. This allows us to capture potential upside while limiting our maximum loss if the dollar weakens unexpectedly.

The link between oil prices and Fed policy, highlighted in the 2025 minutes, is more important than ever. With WTI crude futures currently trading firmly above $88 a barrel, any further supply disruptions could push prices toward $100. Such a move would almost certainly reignite inflation fears, forcing the Fed’s hand and sending the dollar higher.

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