DBS economists expect Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) to rise 11.5% year-on-year in April 2026. This would extend growth to an eighth straight month, after an increase of 15.3% in March.
The projected rise is linked to stronger electronics shipments, supported by global demand tied to artificial intelligence. Non-electronics exports are expected to lag behind electronics.
Petrochemical exports face downside risk due to possible feedstock supply curbs connected to conflict in the Middle East. The report also notes April export conditions likely stayed robust, in line with regional trends.
The article states it was produced using an artificial intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.
With April 2026’s export data due shortly, we anticipate continued strength driven by the artificial intelligence sector. The consensus forecast points to an 11.5% year-on-year rise in non-oil domestic exports, building on the momentum from March. This suggests a bullish outlook for Singaporean tech-related assets.
This view is supported by recent global trends, as the Semiconductor Industry Association reported a 22% year-on-year surge in global chip sales for the first quarter of 2026. We saw a similar pattern in late 2025, where strong electronics demand consistently pushed export figures above expectations. Therefore, we should consider long positions on Singapore-listed technology companies through call options, anticipating further upside from the AI boom.
However, a clear divergence exists within the export data, with petrochemicals facing headwinds from supply chain issues in the Middle East. We’ve seen Brent crude futures show heightened volatility, jumping 12% last month on news of shipping disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz. This presents an opportunity for a pairs trade, balancing long tech positions with put options on petrochemical firms that are sensitive to feedstock costs.
The sustained export growth will likely reinforce the strength of the Singapore dollar. The Monetary Authority of Singapore’s policy of gradual currency appreciation is supported by this strong economic performance. We should look at buying SGD call options or SGD futures, as positive data surprises have historically led to a stronger currency.
The key event will be the actual data release, where the market’s reaction will hinge on any deviation from the 11.5% forecast. Implied volatility on Straits Times Index options will likely increase in the days leading up to the announcement. We can position for a significant market move by purchasing straddles or strangles if we believe the actual figure will surprise significantly in either direction.
