CFTC data shows euro net non-commercial positions in the eurozone fell to 35.7k. The previous level was 41.3k.
The change indicates fewer net long speculative euro positions compared with the prior reporting period. The figures are reported in thousands of contracts (k).
We are seeing large speculators reduce their bullish bets on the Euro, with net long positions falling to €35.7K. This shows that conviction for a stronger Euro is weakening among hedge funds and other major traders. This is a cautious signal we should pay close attention to over the next few weeks.
This change in sentiment follows the latest Eurozone inflation data from April, which showed a slight cooling to 1.9% and weakened the case for the European Central Bank to hold interest rates firm. At the same time, the most recent US jobs report showed a resilient labor market, adding a stronger-than-expected 215,000 jobs. This divergence in economic outlooks makes holding dollars more attractive than Euros.
Given this context, derivative traders may want to consider strategies that profit from or hedge against a potential decline in the EUR/USD exchange rate. This could involve buying put options to set a floor price or establishing bearish put spreads to capitalize on a moderate downward move. The decrease in speculative longs suggests the path of least resistance for the Euro may be lower in the near term.
We saw a similar dynamic play out in the third quarter of 2025. Back then, a steady drop in net long positions over several weeks preceded a significant dip in the EUR/USD. That historical pattern suggests that this current shift is not just noise but a potential leading indicator for price action.
