Baker Hughes reported that the number of active oil rigs in the United States rose to 408.
The previous count was 407, so the total increased by 1 rig.
Rig Count Signals Steady Supply
The number of active oil rigs has edged up to 408, an increase of just one. This small change suggests that producers are not rushing to expand drilling operations despite firm energy prices. For us, this signals continued capital discipline in the shale patch, which should prevent a sudden surge in supply.
This stability in drilling activity reinforces the current floor for crude prices, which have been holding above $90 per barrel for WTI. Options traders should see this as a sign that implied volatility may remain low, as the market is not expecting a major supply-side shock from the U.S. This makes buying options relatively cheaper for directional bets on summer demand.
Looking back, we saw rig counts slowly grind higher from around 400 at the end of 2025. This gradual pace is a stark contrast to the boom-and-bust cycles of the past decade. This deliberate approach from producers is a key reason the market has maintained its balance.
Last week’s inventory report from the Energy Information Administration showed a draw of 2.1 million barrels, exceeding analyst expectations. This draw, combined with a barely-moving rig count, points to a market where demand is slightly outpacing new production. This fundamental backdrop supports a bullish stance on crude oil futures.
We are also watching the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, where the consensus is that current output quotas will be rolled over. With limited new supply expected from both U.S. shale and OPEC+, the path of least resistance for oil prices appears to be sideways to higher. This tight supply picture is the dominant factor for the weeks ahead.
Positioning For Summer Upside
Given this context, we see an opportunity in call spreads on July or August WTI contracts to position for a potential summer price increase. This strategy offers a defined-risk way to capitalize on strong seasonal demand while the supply side remains constrained. The minimal rig count addition gives us confidence that a sudden drop in price is less likely.
