AUD/USD moved back towards 0.7190 on Thursday, reversing Wednesday’s fall. The move followed stronger Chinese business data and a weaker US Dollar.
China’s April NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 versus 50.1 expected, and the RatingDog manufacturing PMI also beat forecasts. The NBS non-Manufacturing PMI was 49.4, below the 49.9 forecast.
China Data Spurs Aussie Support
In the US, Initial Jobless Claims fell to 189K, against expectations near 215K, marking the lowest level in almost 60 years. The PCE Price Index rose to 3.5% year on year in March, up from 2.8% in February, matching forecasts.
US preliminary Q1 GDP growth was 2%, below the 2.3% forecast. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on 5 May, with markets expecting a possible third consecutive rate rise due to high inflation.
On the four-hour chart, AUD/USD traded at 0.7183, above the 20-period and 100-period SMAs at 0.7163 and 0.7134. The RSI was near 59.
Resistance levels were listed at 0.7184 and 0.7192. Support was noted at 0.7167, 0.7163, 0.7145, and 0.7134.
Options Positioning Ahead Of RBA
We are seeing a familiar pattern now in late April 2026, which is reminiscent of this time in 2025 when a rising AUD/USD was also a key theme. The Australian dollar is again finding support from better-than-expected Chinese economic activity, with the latest official NBS Manufacturing PMI for April 2026 coming in at a solid 50.9. This strength in Australia’s largest trading partner is a bullish signal for the currency.
The US picture is also creating a sense of deja vu, with first-quarter GDP for 2026 growing by a weaker-than-expected 1.8%, causing some softness in the US Dollar. However, the PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, remains stubbornly high at 3.1%, clouding the outlook for interest rates. This mixed data from the US is creating the same uncertainty that we saw weighing on the dollar a year ago.
With the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting next week on May 7, markets are positioning for a hawkish stance, much like the rate hike expectations we saw heading into their May 2025 meeting. This suggests that buying short-term AUD/USD call options could be a viable strategy to capture potential upside from a hawkish RBA surprise. This would allow traders to benefit from a potential move higher while limiting downside risk.
However, we should also look back at what happened throughout mid-2025, where initial AUD strength following RBA hikes often faded as concerns about the global economy took over. Therefore, using bull call spreads to define both the risk and potential reward could be a more measured approach. This strategy would profit from a moderate rise in the AUD/USD over the coming weeks while protecting against a sudden reversal.
