Societe Generale analysts report that USD/BRL did not move above its downward-sloping 200-day moving average during a recent consolidation phase. This is described as consistent with a broader bearish trend.
USD/BRL has moved below the lower edge of its prior trading range. The next levels referenced are the lower band of a multi-month channel near 4.90, followed by projections at 4.86 and 4.84.
The level at 5.20, which was reached earlier in April, is cited as short-term resistance. The article notes it was produced with the help of an AI tool and reviewed by an editor.
Given the failure of USD/BRL to break its 200-day moving average, we see the broader downtrend reasserting itself. The recent break below its consolidation range confirms this move is underway. We are now focused on targets located at the lower band of its multi-month channel.
Our primary objectives are now near the 4.90 level, with further projections pointing towards 4.86/4.84. Any unexpected strength in the pair should meet significant resistance at the 5.20 mark. This level represents the peak from earlier in April and now acts as a ceiling for the current bearish structure.
This technical view is supported by Brazil’s solid fundamentals as of April 2026. The Central Bank of Brazil is holding the Selic interest rate firm at 10.5%, making the Real highly attractive for carry trades. This contrasts sharply with the US Federal Reserve, which has signaled a pause in its own tightening cycle amid moderating inflation.
Furthermore, Brazil’s economic data provides a strong tailwind for the Real. The country posted a robust trade surplus of $9.1 billion in March 2026, driven by strong commodity exports. This continued strength in the external accounts reinforces the fundamental case for BRL appreciation against the USD.
For derivative traders, this outlook suggests buying put options with strike prices around 4.95 or 4.90 to profit from the expected decline. Alternatively, selling call spreads with the short leg above the 5.20 resistance level could be an effective strategy to collect premium. These positions are a direct play on our view that the pair’s upside is now severely limited.
We recall that the pair found significant buying interest near these lower levels in the third quarter of 2025 before staging a recovery. Therefore, traders should consider taking profits on bearish positions as we approach the 4.86/4.84 projection zone. This historical price action suggests that while the trend is down, a bounce from those long-term lows is possible.
