UOB expects AUD/USD to trade between 0.7130 and 0.7180 over the next 24 hours after a session that was quieter than expected. The previous day’s projected band was 0.7125 to 0.7175, while the pair moved within 0.7147 to 0.7176.
Over the next 1–3 weeks, UOB maintains a range view of 0.7060 to 0.7210. This view was last set out on Monday 20 April, when spot was 0.7130, and recent trading has remained calm.
On a 1–3 month horizon, the technical trend is still down. A break below 0.6850/0.6870 would set up a move towards 0.6765.
The article notes it was produced with the help of an AI tool and checked by an editor.
Looking back at our analysis from April 2025, we see a familiar pattern of quiet consolidation. The current price action in AUD/USD is showing a similar lack of direction, suggesting a range-trading environment will likely persist in the coming weeks. We are seeing the pair pivot around the 0.6550 mark, failing to sustain any significant rallies or sell-offs.
Given this view, selling volatility appears to be the most prudent strategy. Traders could consider establishing short strangles or iron condors, capitalizing on the expected range between roughly 0.6480 and 0.6620. With one-month implied volatility currently subdued near 8.5%, these positions are designed to profit from time decay as the pair remains confined.
This sideways movement is underpinned by conflicting economic data. Australia’s latest quarterly CPI print came in at 3.2%, which, while above the RBA’s target, is not alarming enough to force a rate hike, keeping the central bank on hold. At the same time, mixed industrial production figures from China are not providing the Australian dollar with any clear upward momentum.
Conversely, the US dollar remains firm, putting a cap on any potential AUD/USD strength. The last Non-Farm Payrolls report, which added over 250,000 jobs, has reinforced the Federal Reserve’s stance to delay any rate cuts. This policy divergence between a patient Fed and a neutral RBA is the primary force keeping the pair within its current boundaries.
Despite the short-term range, we must remain aware of the broader downtrend that has been in place for over a year. A decisive break below the 0.6480 support level could signal a continuation of this trend. Therefore, it is wise to protect short volatility positions by purchasing cheap, out-of-the-money puts as a hedge against a sudden increase in bearish sentiment.
