US EIA data for 17 April shows crude oil stocks rose by 1.925 million barrels. This was above expectations of a 1.2 million barrel fall.
The reported result was 3.125 million barrels higher than the expected change. The figures refer to the latest weekly update for US crude inventories.
The unexpected build in crude oil inventories, showing a 1.925 million barrel increase against a forecast drawdown, suggests a short-term oversupply. This surprise data naturally pressures prices downward as of April 22, 2026. Consequently, we are considering adding to bearish positions through WTI put options or put debit spreads to capitalize on potential weakness.
However, we must also note that the same EIA report indicated a gasoline inventory draw of 2.5 million barrels, well above expectations. This points to strengthening end-user demand as we head towards the peak summer driving season. This underlying demand signal could limit the downside for crude prices.
Geopolitical risks are re-emerging, with reports from April 20th highlighting increased maritime tensions near the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption in this critical chokepoint, which handles nearly 20% of global petroleum liquids, could quickly remove barrels from the market and override inventory data. We are therefore pricing in a higher risk premium which argues against overly aggressive short positions.
Looking back, we saw a similar pattern in the spring of 2025, where several consecutive crude builds were followed by a sharp price rally as summer demand kicked in stronger than forecast. This experience teaches us to be cautious, as the market can shift focus from supply builds to demand reality very quickly. That rally in late May 2025 caught many short-sellers off guard.
These conflicting signals—a bearish crude build against bullish demand indicators and geopolitical risk—are likely to increase market volatility. Given this uncertainty, strategies that profit from price movement in either direction, such as long straddles on the June futures contract, could be prudent. We expect the current price range to be challenged in the coming weeks.
