AUD/USD rose towards the 0.7200 area on Friday as Middle East news reduced demand for the US Dollar and lifted risk-linked currencies such as the Australian Dollar. Markets reacted after announcements that the Strait of Hormuz is “fully open and ready for full passage”.
US President Donald Trump said the route is open for business, while temporary naval restrictions linked to Iran will stay in place as talks near completion. The overall messaging pointed to de-escalation.
With fewer worries about oil supply disruptions, the US Dollar eased after earlier support from geopolitical concerns. Oil prices were expected to stabilise or fall, which could reduce inflation risks and ease pressure on central banks.
On the four-hour chart, AUD/USD traded at 0.7194 and stayed above the 20-period SMA at 0.7159 and the 100-period SMA at 0.6996. The RSI (14) sat just above 70.
Resistance levels were cited at 0.7194 and 0.7221, while support was listed at 0.7171, 0.7162, and 0.7159. A move towards 0.6996 was noted as the level that would challenge the uptrend.
The report said the technical analysis was produced with help from an AI tool.
Looking back at the situation in 2025, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz was a key signal for a risk-on shift in the market. The de-escalation directly weakened the US Dollar’s safe-haven appeal, which had been propping it up. This created a clear opportunity as risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian Dollar began to strengthen.
We saw this as an ideal time to position for further upside in AUD/USD using derivatives. Buying call options on the Aussie dollar was a direct way to capitalize on the rally toward the 0.7200 level mentioned in the analysis. The drop in geopolitical tension also lowered implied volatility, making these options relatively inexpensive to acquire.
Today, on April 17, 2026, the environment is different, though we can draw lessons from that 2025 event. Global oil supplies are once again a concern, with Brent crude futures having recently pushed above $90 per barrel, a level not seen since late 2025. This contrasts with the price stabilization we saw after the Hormuz reopening and adds a layer of uncertainty for risk assets.
The Australian economy is also sending different signals now, with the latest quarterly CPI data showing inflation remains sticky at 3.5%, above the central bank’s target range. This persistent inflation suggests the Reserve Bank of Australia may be forced to maintain a restrictive policy stance longer than anticipated. This provides some underlying support for the AUD, independent of the global risk mood.
Given the current backdrop of high oil prices but a potentially hawkish RBA, a cautious but bullish stance on the AUD is warranted. Rather than buying outright calls as we did in 2025, using a bull call spread on AUD/USD would be more prudent. This strategy allows for profiting from a moderate rise in the currency while capping risk in what is a more uncertain global environment.
