Brent crude almost reached $100/bbl on Thursday, then moved lower on Friday as trading followed changing headlines on US–Iran talks and regional ceasefires. Brent closed at $99.39/bbl after rising +4.70%.
Reuters cited two Iranian sources saying US and Iranian negotiators had reduced plans for a comprehensive peace deal. The report said they were instead considering a temporary memorandum to prevent a return to conflict.
Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported that Iran, via Pakistani mediation, said the US must first meet its commitments. It also said talks would not help without preliminary arrangements and an agreed framework.
The report also noted that a US equity rally continued despite the rise in oil prices. The article was produced using an AI tool and reviewed by an editor.
We saw last year how sensitive Brent prices are to headlines surrounding major geopolitical negotiations. The price action in 2025, when oil almost hit $100 per barrel on pessimistic US-Iran reports before pulling back, shows that political news can easily overpower fundamental supply data. This proves that the market’s immediate direction is tied directly to diplomatic chatter.
This pattern is holding true today, as markets remain on edge. With OPEC+ discipline holding strong through the first quarter of 2026 and global inventories remaining below the five-year average, any perceived threat to supply has an outsized impact. For instance, recent satellite data from early April 2026 shows a 5% decrease in tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz compared to the previous month, a statistic traders are watching closely.
Given this constant threat of headline-driven volatility, we believe derivative traders should focus on buying options rather than holding outright futures positions. Buying calls or puts provides exposure to the sharp, multi-dollar swings that a single news report can trigger, while strictly defining your maximum risk. Implied volatility in Brent options has risen to over 40%, indicating the market is pricing in significant price swings in the weeks ahead.
This environment is very similar to what we witnessed in early 2022 after the invasion of Ukraine. During that period, Brent crude futures whipsawed in a $30 range, surging from around $95 to over $125 per barrel and back down in just a few weeks. That historical precedent shows that traders who were long volatility, not necessarily long the market, were the ones who profited most.
Therefore, strategies that benefit from a large price move in either direction should be considered. This allows you to position for the inevitable spike in volatility without having to correctly guess the outcome of complex and unpredictable negotiations. It is a direct bet on the continuation of market uncertainty itself.
