Silver (XAG/USD) fell 0.30% on Thursday and did not break above resistance at $81.00. It was trading at $78.73 after reaching a daily high of $80.86.
The chart showed a lower high and a lower low, with back-to-back doji candles. This points to indecision near $81.00 while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stayed bullish but moved flat, suggesting consolidation.
A move above $81.00 would open the way to the 2025 high at $83.75 and then March’s 10-cycle high at $90.01. Further gains could target the March 2 peak at $96.39, followed by the $100 level.
If price drops below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $76.94, the next levels are the 20-day SMA at $73.36 and then $70.00. These are the key downside support areas mentioned.
Looking back at the market in 2025, the indecision near the $81 resistance was a key signal for us. Those back-to-back doji candles suggested a big move was coming, but the direction was unclear. This was a classic setup for using options strategies like straddles to profit from a breakout in either direction.
The weakening bullish pattern we saw then, coupled with a strengthening dollar, made the risk of a drop below $76.94 very real. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) did briefly climb above 105 in late 2025, validating those short-term concerns. For those holding long positions, buying put options with a strike price around $75 would have been a prudent way to hedge against a potential slide toward the $70 mark.
Ultimately, the consolidation resolved to the upside, as the dollar’s strength faded into early 2026. As we see today with silver trading around $85, the break above the $81 level was the decisive move. This rally has been supported by strong fundamentals, with industrial demand for silver projected to rise by 4% in 2026, largely due to solar and EV manufacturing.
With the market having broken past the 2025 high of $83.75, our focus shifts to the next major resistance levels noted last year, like the $90 mark. Implied volatility has been rising, so selling cash-secured puts below current support could be a strategy to collect premium while waiting for a pullback. We are also seeing significant open interest in call options at the $95 and $100 strike prices for the end of the year, indicating where some traders expect the price to go.
