The Australian Dollar (AUD) is the best performing G10 currency year-to-date, with support linked to expectations of further Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) tightening. Market pricing includes another 25 bp RBA rate rise over a three-month view, alongside firm Australian labour data and a hawkish RBA stance.
After the February rate rise, markets had expected the RBA to pause, but inflation concerns linked to the Middle East war affected expectations. Higher G10 bond yields in recent weeks have tightened financial conditions and may help keep inflation expectations anchored.
March Australian labour data showed employment rose by 17.9K, below expectations, while full-time jobs increased by 52.5K and part-time jobs fell. This mix points to strength in full-time hiring and ongoing inflation risks.
Rabobank’s base case is for AUD/USD to rise towards 0.72 by year-end. The same outlook includes further downside in EUR/AUD towards the March low near 1.6130.
The article states it was created using an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.
Last year, around this time in 2025, we saw the Australian dollar as the top performing G10 currency, largely because the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was expected to keep raising interest rates. This view was supported by a strong labour market and inflation concerns stemming from geopolitical tensions at the time. The RBA’s relatively hawkish position provided solid ground for the Aussie’s strength.
That hawkishness from the RBA did play out, helping to anchor the currency through the end of 2025. Now, in April 2026, the core question is whether that momentum can continue as global conditions shift. We are still seeing signs of the economic resilience that characterized the situation last year.
Recent data from the first quarter of 2026 shows inflation remains stubbornly high at 3.5%, still above the RBA’s target band. Furthermore, March’s labour report confirmed the unemployment rate is holding firm at 4.0%, suggesting underlying strength in the economy that could keep wage pressures elevated. This is very similar to the robust full-time jobs growth we observed in March of 2025.
Given the RBA’s persistent hawkish tone and sticky inflation, traders should consider positions that benefit from continued AUD strength. Buying AUD call options provides upside exposure with a defined risk, which is a sensible approach in the coming weeks. Selling out-of-the-money AUD puts could also be used to collect premium, betting that the currency will not fall significantly from current levels.
The policy divergence we saw in 2025 between the RBA and the European Central Bank appears to be widening. With the ECB signaling potential rate cuts this summer, the case for continued downside in the EUR/AUD cross remains compelling. Meanwhile, AUD/USD may face some headwinds if the US Federal Reserve remains hesitant to cut its own rates, potentially capping upside near the 0.70-0.71 range.
We must remain watchful of economic data coming out of China, as it is Australia’s largest trading partner. Any unexpected weakness in Chinese manufacturing or consumer demand could quickly dampen sentiment for the Aussie dollar. This remains a key risk factor, regardless of the RBA’s domestic focus.
