US MBA mortgage applications increased to 1.8% in the week ending 10 April. The previous reading was -0.8%.
The update points to a rise in overall mortgage demand over the period. It follows a fall in the prior week.
Looking back, the jump in mortgage applications we saw around April 10th of last year was a critical early signal for the housing market. That 1.8% increase came as the 30-year fixed mortgage rate briefly dipped under 6.5% for the first time in months. This was an early sign of the housing market’s resilience that many were waiting for.
We recall how this data immediately shifted sentiment around the Federal Reserve’s expected path for the remainder of 2025. The market began pricing out one of the anticipated rate cuts, a move reflected in the pricing of SOFR and Fed Funds futures. Consequently, positions that bet on falling Treasury yields, such as long positions in 10-year note futures (ZN), faced immediate pressure.
This was the moment to look at call options on homebuilder ETFs like ITB and XHB. Following that April 2025 data, we saw the homebuilding sector rally over 15% through the summer and fall of last year. Those who positioned for that upside by watching these early demand indicators were well-rewarded for seeing the trend before it was obvious.
That small uptick was an early piece of the economic soft landing narrative that dominated the second half of 2025. Now, in April 2026, with the Case-Shiller Home Price Index up 5.5% year-over-year, we see that initial application data was a reliable forward indicator. We continue to watch this weekly data for any signs of slowing as the Fed maintains its restrictive stance.
