The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate target by 25bps to 4.10% at its 17 March meeting. The decision was close at 5–4, with four members preferring no change due to uncertainty about labour market tightness.
Australia’s March labour force report on Thursday is set to shape expectations for the next rate move. Forecasts point to +17.8k jobs, down from +48.9k in February, with unemployment seen at 4.3% for a second month.
March Labour Report And Rate Outlook
If job growth comes in stronger than expected, markets may bring forward expectations for another 25bps increase at the 5 May policy meeting. The probability of a May hike is currently priced at 62%, while weaker data could move expectations to a later date.
In currency trading, AUD/USD is near resistance at 0.7200 and has support around 0.7000. The source notes the article was produced using an AI tool and reviewed by an editor.
Looking back at the situation in early 2025, we remember the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy was on a knife’s edge, with a narrow vote to hike its cash rate to 4.10%. Back then, every jobs report was critical in determining the timing of the next rate increase. This created significant uncertainty and opportunity around key data releases.
Today, on April 13, 2026, the landscape has changed considerably, as the RBA has since entered an easing cycle with the cash rate now at 3.85%. The labor market has also cooled, with the latest unemployment figures from March 2026 showing a rise to 4.5%, slightly above the RBA’s earlier projections for this year. This softening confirms the central bank’s dovish pivot and changes how we should approach the market.
Approaching Audusd In A Dovish Cycle
With the RBA now cutting rates, the underlying pressure on the AUD/USD is bearish, a stark contrast to the hawkish sentiment we saw last year. The pair is currently trading near 0.6750, well below the 0.7000 support level from early 2025, which now acts as a significant resistance point. We believe derivative traders should therefore favor strategies that profit from further downside or limited upside in the currency pair.
Given this context, buying AUD/USD put options provides a clear directional bet with defined risk, especially ahead of major data events. Another approach is to sell out-of-the-money call spreads, which would profit if the AUD/USD pair remains below key resistance levels like 0.6850 or 0.6900. This strategy is effective in the current environment where rate cuts are capping any potential rallies.
The primary market catalyst has shifted from employment data to inflation reports, which will now dictate the pace of the RBA’s rate cuts. The upcoming quarterly CPI data will be the next major event for the Australian dollar. We should therefore consider positioning for a weaker AUD ahead of that release, as a soft inflation print would increase bets on a more aggressive easing cycle from the RBA.
