Baker Hughes reported that the US oil rig count rose to 411. The previous count was 409.
This is an increase of 2 rigs. The figures relate to oil rigs in the United States.
Us Oil Rig Count Edges Higher
The U.S. oil rig count has ticked up to 411, a small increase but one that continues a subtle upward trend. This suggests producers are gaining confidence in current price levels to slowly expand operations. This slight rise points toward more supply coming online later this year.
This data reinforces the latest EIA outlook from March 2026, which forecast a gradual rise in U.S. crude output toward 13.4 million barrels per day in the second half of the year. The actual rig additions give credibility to these forecasts, which we should now price in with more certainty. This steady, non-dramatic increase in supply is a key factor for contracts dated for the third and fourth quarters.
We remember how rig counts remained stubbornly flat for much of 2025, as drillers prioritized capital discipline over production growth. After a year of focusing on returning cash to shareholders, this slow ramp-up indicates a potential shift in strategy. It appears the incentive to drill is quietly returning to the Permian Basin.
For the coming weeks, we should consider strategies that account for this potential cap on oil prices. Selling out-of-the-money call options or establishing bear call spreads on WTI futures for September 2026 delivery could be prudent. This allows us to benefit if prices move sideways or drift lower on the back of this confirmed supply growth.
Implications For Prices And Volatility
The slow, predictable nature of this increase may also keep a lid on market volatility. This environment could favor strategies like selling strangles, which profit from a lack of large price swings. However, this view assumes no unexpected geopolitical events from OPEC+ or other global hotspots disrupt the current balance.
