The Pound Sterling rose against most major currencies on Friday, but not against other European currencies. It was near 1.3444 against the US Dollar during the European trading session.
The move followed reports of progress towards a Russia-Ukraine peace deal after a four-year war. Bloomberg reported that a senior adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine is close to reaching a deal with Russia.
Sterling Outlook Against The Dollar
UOB said the short-term outlook for GBP/USD remains positive after gains above 1.3450. It said the pair could move towards 1.3520, but only if there is a daily close above 1.3480.
UOB placed support at 1.3330. It said intraday trading is expected within a 1.3390 to 1.3465 range.
UOB also referred to its earlier view from Wednesday, 08 April, when spot was 1.3400. It said it had expected room for the pair to rise to 1.3480, despite the rally appearing overdone.
Looking back to this time last year, in April 2025, we saw the Pound rally on hopes of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. The market was watching to see if GBP/USD could close above the key 1.3480 level to sustain its upward momentum. This optimism provided a temporary boost for Sterling against the dollar.
Option Strategy For June 2026
That rally ultimately fizzled out as we recall the pair failed to hold those gains, with the 1.3480 level acting as strong resistance throughout the rest of Q2 2025. The peace deal optimism was short-lived, and the market’s focus shifted back to economic fundamentals. This taught us that geopolitical news can create fleeting opportunities that are difficult to trade.
Today, the situation is driven by different factors. The Bank of England has adopted a more hawkish tone following the latest UK inflation report for March 2026, which showed consumer prices rising at an annual rate of 3.2%. With UK Q1 2026 GDP growth also surprising to the upside at 0.5%, the economic picture supports a stronger Pound.
Given this, we see opportunities in buying call options on GBP/USD with a strike price around 1.3600 for June 2026 expiry. This allows us to capture potential upside from expected interest rate hikes by the Bank of England. It is a defined-risk way to position for further Sterling strength over the coming weeks.
However, we must also consider that recent US jobs data has been robust, with the latest Non-Farm Payrolls figure for March 2026 exceeding 250,000 jobs. This keeps the US Federal Reserve in play for its own rate adjustments. To manage this risk, a bull call spread could be a prudent strategy, which would lower the initial cost of the trade.
