Silver (XAG/USD) traded in a narrow range on Monday amid Middle East tensions and mixed reports on attempts to end the US-Iran war. Prices were around $73, with a softer US Dollar offering some support. Gains were limited as higher Oil prices raised inflation concerns and supported expectations of higher US interest rates for longer. Reports from Axios said the US and Iran, with regional mediators, discussed a potential 45-day ceasefire. IRNA later reported that Iran rejected a ceasefire proposal sent via Pakistan and issued a 10-point response. The proposal was said to include calls to end regional conflicts and a plan for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Focus has shifted to a deadline set for Tuesday at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time by US President Donald Trump. Trump warned of strikes on Iran’s energy and civilian infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. Technically, price has faced repeated rejection near the 100-day SMA and remains well below the 50-day SMA. Resistance sits at $75.84, then $82.35, with a further barrier at $96.62. Support is seen at $70-$68, then $61.01, near the 200-day SMA at $59.24. RSI is 43, while MACD is slightly positive but close to zero. We recall how silver was trapped around $73 last year during the 2025 US-Iran conflict, caught between geopolitical fear and a hawkish Federal Reserve. The market was paralyzed waiting for President Trump’s deadline concerning the Strait of Hormuz. That dynamic has changed entirely as we move through April 2026. Today, silver trades at a much lower $55, a direct result of the Fed holding rates high for most of 2025, which strengthened the dollar and suppressed non-yielding assets. The focus has now shifted from military deadlines to economic data, with the latest CPI report showing inflation moderating to 2.8% and the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.1%. This has the market pricing in potential rate cuts for the third or fourth quarter of this year. This new environment suggests a different approach to volatility than the one we saw during the 2025 standoff, when implied volatility was extremely high. With the CBOE Silver Volatility Index (VXSLV) now trading at a calmer 25, compared to spikes above 40 during past crises, selling options premium appears more attractive. Strategies like writing cash-secured puts or covered calls could allow traders to collect income while waiting for a clearer trend to emerge. For directional plays, the key levels have shifted downwards, with the former 2025 support zone around $61 now acting as firm resistance. Given the prospect of future rate cuts, we see a more constructive long-term outlook for silver. Traders can use long-dated call options, such as those expiring in January 2027 with a $60 strike price, to position for a gradual recovery without committing large amounts of capital upfront. The main risk is no longer a sudden military event but the timing of the Fed’s pivot. We should therefore use options to manage this economic uncertainty by purchasing protective puts below the significant psychological level of $50. This creates a defined floor for long positions should inflation prove unexpectedly sticky and force the Fed to delay its easing cycle.

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