In April 2025, the Nasdaq fell towards 17,000 before the daily MACD line crossed above the signal line. After that crossover, price rose by over 9,000 points, reaching near 24,000. During that rise, the daily MACD did not cross back below the signal line, including during pullbacks and consolidations. The text links this outcome to the crossover occurring near the end of an Elliott Wave corrective structure.

Daily Macd As A Long Only Filter

A similar daily MACD crossover is now present after sustained selling pressure. The setup is described as similar in the crossover angle, its position versus the zero line, and the histogram behaviour. The process uses three timeframes. On the daily chart, the crossover is used as a long-only filter, and it is invalidated if the MACD crosses back below the signal line. On the 4-hour chart, the move is counted as a new Wave 1 followed by a Wave 2 pullback, with a 4-hour MACD crossover also forming. On the 30-minute chart, a target zone is placed around 23,600, with entry triggered by a 30-minute MACD bullish crossover at that level and a stop set just below the swing low. We are now seeing a powerful signal that mirrors the setup from April 2025. Last year, we saw the Nasdaq fall hard to the 17,000 level before a daily MACD crossover kicked off a sustained rally to over 24,000 points. That same bullish MACD crossover on the daily chart is appearing again today, April 6, 2026, after a sharp pullback from recent all-time highs.

Lower Timeframe Entry And Risk Rules

The market has been selling off since February after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report came in hotter than expected at 3.1%, raising concerns about the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut timeline. This pullback has pushed the Nasdaq down from over 25,500 to its current level around 23,800. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has reflected this fear, spiking above 22 for the first time in six months. For derivative traders, this daily MACD signal acts as a directional filter, meaning we should now exclusively focus on bullish positions. The strategy is to ignore short-selling opportunities as long as the daily MACD line remains above its signal line. If it crosses back below, the bullish setup is invalidated, and we will step aside. The next step is to watch the lower timeframes for a precise entry point for call options or long futures contracts. Based on the Elliott Wave structure, we are anticipating the current corrective pullback to find a bottom near the 23,600 level. This area represents a high-probability zone for the correction to end and the next major upward move to begin. Our entry trigger will be a bullish MACD crossover on the 30-minute chart once the price enters that 23,600 target zone. This provides a clear, repeatable signal to initiate long positions with a defined risk level just below the swing low. The potential reward is significant if this corrective wave is indeed finished, setting the stage for a powerful Wave 3 rally similar to what we witnessed in 2025. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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