Middle East Ceasefire Talks
US President Donald Trump threatened to target Iran’s power plants and bridges if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by Tuesday. The threat kept uncertainty elevated and restrained follow-through buying in the pair. Technically, the near-term bias stayed mildly bearish as price remained below the 200-period Simple Moving Average on the 4-hour chart, which is sloping lower. The MACD flattened just under the zero line with a slightly negative histogram, pointing to weaker momentum. The RSI hovered around 43, below the 50 midline. Resistance is seen at 1.3240 and 1.3300, with a move above 1.3300 needed to test the 200-period SMA near 1.3370. Support sits near 1.3190, with a break exposing 1.3150. The technical section was produced with help from an AI tool.Pound Dollar Technical Outlook
The GBP/USD pair is meeting some resistance near the 1.2480 region and seems to be struggling to hold onto recent gains. We are seeing spot prices consolidating below the key 1.2500 psychological level, suggesting that any meaningful appreciation remains difficult. This hesitation comes as traders weigh diverging economic signals from the UK and the US. Recent data reinforces this view, with the latest UK inflation reading for March coming in hotter than expected at 2.8%, complicating the Bank of England’s path forward amid sluggish growth. In contrast, the US non-farm payrolls report showed a robust addition of 215,000 jobs, supporting the case for a stronger US Dollar. This fundamental divergence is keeping a lid on the pound’s recovery potential. From a technical perspective, the medium-term bias remains bearish as we see the pair trading firmly below the 200-day Simple Moving Average, currently around 1.2650. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is hovering just below its signal line and the zero mark. This indicates that last week’s minor bounce is losing steam and lacks strong buying conviction. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned around 45, which points to a soft downside momentum rather than an oversold condition. Therefore, we expect any upward moves to face immediate resistance at 1.2500, with a more significant barrier located near the 1.2580 swing high. A decisive break above this level would be required to ease the current bearish pressure. On the downside, initial support is found at the recent low of 1.2420. A break below this floor would likely accelerate selling pressure and open the path toward the 1.2350 area. This was a key support level that we observed holding firm during the final quarter of 2025. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.
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