Near Term Technical Bias
Chart signals kept a bullish near-term bias after last week’s bounce from the rising 100-period EMA on the 4-hour chart and a move above the 100.00 level. The MACD turned higher again, moving back into positive territory, with an improving histogram. The RSI was near 61, above its midline but below overbought levels. Pullbacks may find buyers near $102.00, then around $99.50, while the 100-period EMA sits below $94.00; resistance is near $105.70, with $108.00 next. The current price action in WTI crude, hovering around $95, is reminiscent of the volatility we saw back in 2025. During that period, prices struggled near $104 due to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and a strong US dollar. We are seeing a similar dynamic now, where underlying supply tightness is fighting against macroeconomic headwinds. Current concerns are focused on OPEC+ discord regarding production cuts, with recent satellite data suggesting several key members are producing above their agreed-upon quotas. This supply uncertainty is running up against strong demand signals, as the most recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) report showed a larger-than-expected draw in US crude inventories of 2.5 million barrels last week. The Federal Reserve’s unclear stance on future rate adjustments is also strengthening the dollar, putting a cap on any significant price rallies for now.Support And Resistance Levels
From a technical perspective, the bounce last week from the 100-period moving average on the 4-hour chart keeps the near-term bias bullish. We see momentum indicators like the MACD beginning to cross back into positive territory. This suggests that after a brief period of selling, buyers are re-establishing control. The Relative Strength Index is holding near 59, indicating solid upward pressure without the market being overbought. Therefore, any pullback toward the $93.00 handle should be viewed as a potential buying opportunity for derivative traders playing the short-term trend. Stronger support sits near the psychological $90.00 mark, which should hold barring any major shift in fundamentals. To the upside, immediate resistance is found at the recent peak around $96.50. A decisive break above this level would signal a continuation of the uptrend and could open the path toward testing the $100 mark in the coming weeks. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.
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