Australia’s trade surplus widened to 5,686M month-on-month in February, from 2,258M previously (revised from 2,631M). The consensus forecast was 2,500M, based on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Exports rose 4.9% month-on-month in February, after a 1.6% fall in January (revised from -0.9%). Imports fell 3.2% month-on-month, after a 1.1% rise in January (revised from 0.8%).
At the time of reporting, AUD/USD was down 0.05% on the day at 0.6925. A preview section noted the release time as 00.30 GMT, with earlier details published on April 1 at 22.30 GMT.
Technical levels referenced for AUD/USD included resistance at 0.6962, 0.7025 and 0.7100. Support levels cited were 0.6895, the 100-day EMA at 0.6865, and 0.6833.
Background notes said the Australian dollar can be affected by RBA interest rates, inflation targets of 2–3%, and quantitative easing or tightening. They also cited China’s role as Australia’s largest trading partner and iron ore as the largest export at $118 billion a year (2021 data).
Looking back to early 2025, we saw a very strong trade surplus of 5,686M in February, which was driven by a 4.9% surge in exports. This painted a robust picture for the Australian dollar at the time, supporting it around the 0.69 level. The economic environment in early 2026 is now presenting a different set of challenges.
The landscape has since shifted, as key commodity prices have softened considerably from their 2025 peaks. For instance, iron ore prices are now trading near $105 per tonne, a significant drop from over $130 seen for much of last year. This has been compounded by recent data showing China’s industrial production grew by only 4.5% in the first quarter of 2026, missing market expectations.
This weaker external demand is reflected in the most recent trade figures, with the surplus for February 2026 narrowing to just 1.8 billion, well below last year’s levels. The Reserve Bank of Australia has also noted these global headwinds, adopting a more neutral stance in its latest meeting. This contrasts sharply with the more hawkish sentiment we observed throughout most of 2025.
Given this context, derivative traders should consider positioning for potential downside in the Australian dollar over the coming weeks. With AUD/USD currently hovering around 0.6540, buying put options could provide a hedge against a further slide toward the 0.6400 support level. The momentum that we saw this time last year is no longer present in the market.
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