Silver (XAG/USD) traded around $75.00 on Wednesday as US Treasury yields reduced earlier losses. The metal did not break above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at $76.90, and it was last at $75.07, little changed.
The price trend remains upward overall, but the failure at the 20-day SMA has kept XAG/USD near $75.00. This has raised questions about the March 31 breakout, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has levelled off in bearish territory.
If XAG/USD moves back above the 20-day SMA, it could extend gains beyond $77.00 towards $80.00. Further resistance is at the 50-day SMA, set at $83.62.
If the price drops below the 100-day SMA at $74.43, the next support is near $70.00. Below that, support sits at the March 26 swing low of $66.72.
Looking back at this analysis from early 2025, we recall the hesitation in the silver market as it consolidated around the $75.00 mark. The failure to overcome the 20-day SMA was a key indicator that buyers were losing control at that time. That period of doubt, where the March 31, 2025 breakout was questioned, ultimately set the stage for the next major leg.
That sideways movement proved temporary, as the market did briefly test lower support levels near $70.00 in the second quarter of 2025. The real catalyst for the subsequent rally emerged in late 2025, when persistent inflation figures and a more dovish outlook from the Federal Reserve weakened the US dollar. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data from that period showed a significant increase in net-long positions by money managers, confirming a shift in sentiment.
This fundamental shift was supported by robust industrial demand, especially after reports in late 2025 highlighted a nearly 20% year-over-year increase in silver consumption for photovoltaics. That technical resistance at the 50-day SMA of $83.62, which seemed so significant in April 2025, was decisively broken in the third quarter. From our current perspective today, that price action was a clear accumulation phase before the trend accelerated.
Given that silver is now trading at much higher levels, we should anticipate increased volatility in the coming weeks. Traders could consider using options to define risk, perhaps by selling out-of-the-money puts on any significant price dips to collect premium, reflecting a belief in the continued strength of the underlying trend. We must now watch the new major psychological level of $100.00 as the next area of interest.
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