Technical Picture And Momentum
Technically, the pair remains above the rising 100-period EMA on the 4-hour chart and stays supported by an uptrend line from around 157.20. RSI is near 54, suggesting neutral-to-positive momentum and a steadier rise rather than a sharp move. MACD remains slightly above its signal line in positive territory, but the histogram is contracting, pointing to slower upside momentum. Support is seen near 159.40, then 159.00, and the 100-period EMA around 158.70. Resistance levels are 160.20 and 160.30, with a break above 160.30 targeting 160.80. A sustained fall below 158.70 would weaken the upside case and suggest a broader correction. We are seeing the USD/JPY pair retreat from the 160.50 area after Japanese officials signaled they might step in to support their currency. This verbal warning is causing traders to buy back the yen, but the potential for this dip is likely limited. The underlying trend still appears to favor a stronger dollar against the yen. We must take this intervention threat seriously, as it reminds us of the direct market action we analyzed back in 2025 when looking at the 2022 charts. Recent Japanese trade data for February 2026 showed a significant 12% year-on-year rise in import costs, providing a strong domestic incentive to prevent further yen weakness. The key question is whether officials will act before the pair establishes itself firmly above the 160.50 level.Strategy And Key Levels Ahead
The dollar’s strength remains supported by monetary policy differences, especially after the latest US CPI figures released last week came in at a stubborn 3.1%, higher than expected. This reinforces the view that the Federal Reserve will be in no hurry to cut interest rates. This wide interest rate gap between the US and Japan continues to be the primary driver for a higher USD/JPY. Given the uncertainty, using options to define risk seems prudent for the coming weeks. Traders who believe the uptrend will resume could consider buying call options with strikes near 160.50 to target a move toward 160.80. This approach protects capital from a sudden drop caused by any surprise intervention from authorities. On the other hand, the technical support around 158.70 is a critical line to watch. A sustained break below this level would negate the immediate bullish bias. Traders could use this as a trigger to purchase put options to profit from a deeper correction towards the 157.00 handle. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.
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