Switzerland’s imports fell month on month to 17,380M in February. This was down from 18,411M in the previous month.
The drop represents a decrease of 1,031M compared with January. The figures describe a month-on-month decline in the value of imports.
The drop in Swiss imports for February is a clear signal of slowing domestic demand. This points to a cooling economy, giving the Swiss National Bank (SNB) more justification to consider a more dovish monetary policy. We should anticipate that this data will weigh on the central bank’s upcoming decisions.
This development is bearish for the Swiss Franc, as a weaker economic outlook often leads to a weaker currency. The latest Swiss CPI figures, which showed inflation easing to 1.4%, further support the case for the SNB to act, possibly through a rate cut. We believe positioning for CHF weakness through options, such as buying EUR/CHF calls, is a prudent strategy.
For equity traders, this slowdown in domestic consumption could create headwinds for the Swiss Market Index (SMI). While many SMI companies are global exporters, a negative domestic sentiment can still impact the market. This import data confirms other recent weak signals, such as the procure.ch Manufacturing PMI which fell to 49.1 in February, indicating a contraction.
We are now looking at the upcoming SNB policy meeting as the next major catalyst. This situation contrasts with the economic strength we observed through most of 2025, which supported the franc. The current data increases the probability of a dovish surprise, suggesting traders could look at volatility plays on the franc in the run-up to the announcement.
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