Switzerland’s exports fell month on month in February. They dropped from 22,229M in the previous period to 21,584M.
This is a decrease of 645M compared with the prior month. The figures are reported in millions (M).
The February drop in Swiss exports signals a potential economic slowdown, increasing the probability of a weaker Swiss Franc. We should therefore look at derivative strategies that would benefit from a rising USD/CHF or EUR/CHF over the next few weeks. Call options on these pairs offer a defined-risk way to position for franc weakness.
This export weakness is concerning because the chemical and pharmaceutical sector, which makes up over 45% of goods sold abroad, is now showing signs of softness. This follows the trend we saw in the luxury watch sector, which has faced headwinds from slowing Asian demand since late 2025. This makes buying puts on the Swiss Market Index (SMI) an attractive hedge, as key components like Novartis and Richemont are directly exposed.
This report will give the Swiss National Bank (SNB) more reason to maintain its dovish policy, especially as domestic inflation is already low at a reported 1.4%. We saw the SNB act decisively to weaken the franc back in 2025, and this data supports the case for them to stay on the sidelines or even hint at future rate cuts. This reinforces the bearish view on the franc, making futures contracts shorting the CHF against a basket of currencies a viable strategy.
Given the uncertainty, an increase in currency volatility is likely. Looking back at the market’s reaction to weak industrial data in the third quarter of 2025, implied volatility on CHF pairs saw a significant spike. Therefore, purchasing short-dated straddles or strangles on EUR/CHF could be an effective way to profit from a sharp price move in either direction as the market reprices Switzerland’s growth outlook.
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