The Swiss Franc fell against the Euro and the US Dollar late on Thursday. USD/CHF rose to around 0.7850, while EUR/CHF moved up to about 0.9040 after two days of declines.
Market attention stayed on the Middle East and rising energy prices. Oil and gas gains added to concerns about inflation pressures in Europe and the United States.
For USD/CHF, a move above 0.7878 could bring the 100-day SMA at 0.7899 and the 200-day SMA at 0.7959 into view. On the downside, a break below 0.7668 could target 0.7628 and then 0.7601.
For EUR/CHF, the next downside level mentioned is the record low at 0.8980. Traders also weighed the risk of Swiss National Bank action in currency markets.
The Swiss National Bank is Switzerland’s central bank and aims for price stability, defined as Swiss CPI rising by less than 2% per year. It sets policy quarterly in March, June, September and December, and publishes a medium-term inflation forecast.
The SNB can intervene in foreign exchange markets and used a euro peg from 2011 to 2015. It often buys foreign currencies, and may avoid intervention when energy-driven inflation is high as a stronger CHF reduces import costs.
With the Swiss National Bank’s policy meeting just around the corner on March 19, 2026, we see the current weakness in the Franc as a potential opportunity. The USD/CHF pair is lingering around 0.7850, but fundamental pressures are building that could reverse this trend sharply. Traders should therefore be cautious of being short the Franc.
The most critical new data point is the Swiss inflation rate for February 2026, which recently came in at 2.3%. This is stubbornly above the SNB’s 2% target, giving them a strong incentive to sound hawkish and support the currency. We remember how the SNB paused its rate hikes in late 2025 when inflation cooled, but this recent uptick changes the calculation entirely.
Rising energy prices are fueling these inflation concerns, with Brent crude oil now trading above $95 a barrel, a significant increase over the last month. A stronger Franc helps make these crucial energy imports cheaper for Switzerland, which the SNB will view favourably. Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, while currently favouring the US Dollar, could quickly shift to benefit the traditional safe-haven Franc if the situation deteriorates.
This combination of factors points towards significant potential volatility around next week’s SNB announcement. Options traders might consider strategies like straddles on USD/CHF, which would profit from a large price move in either direction. The current calm in the currency pair may be short-lived.
For those with a directional bias, the evidence leans towards future Franc strength. A failure for USD/CHF to break above the key resistance at 0.7878 could be a trigger to position for a move lower. A break below the March low of 0.7668 would open the door for a test of the year’s lows around 0.7600.
The outlook for EUR/CHF appears even more bearish as it hovers near the all-time low of 0.8980. With the European Central Bank facing its own economic challenges, the SNB’s clear mandate to fight inflation suggests the path of least resistance for this pair is downwards. This presents another avenue for traders to position for a stronger Franc in the coming weeks.
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