Standard Chartered strategist Nicholas Chia now expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise the cash rate to 4.10% at its 17 March meeting, after previously forecasting no change. The bank still expects another rise in Q2, lifting its terminal rate forecast to 4.35% from 4.10%, likely at the May meeting. The change follows firm activity indicators and RBA communication that leaned towards tighter policy before the blackout period. The note also points to higher inflation expectations, with limited tolerance for any move away from stable short-term expectations.

Oil Price Shock And Inflation Expectations

Part of the rise in expectations is linked to an oil price shock. The RBA may look through that factor, but it may still respond to broader shifts in expectations. The bank sees a high chance of a split board decision in March. It also says the 17 March call is close, with the main risk being the RBA holding rates to await more data such as quarterly core inflation. The article was created using an AI tool and reviewed by an editor. We are seeing a familiar pattern emerge as we approach the next Reserve Bank of Australia meeting. Looking back to this time in 2025, we saw a sudden pivot in expectations towards a rate hike due to firm economic activity and a worrying rise in inflation expectations. This created significant short-term volatility in the rates market.

Positioning Ahead Of The Rba Decision

The situation today, March 12, 2026, has echoes of last year, which warrants close attention. The latest monthly CPI indicator for February surprised slightly to the upside at 3.6%, and retail sales figures also beat forecasts, showing continued resilience in consumer spending. These are the same types of indicators that caused the market to reprice RBA expectations so quickly in 2025. This shift is reflected in interest rate futures, which now imply a roughly 30% chance of a rate hike at next week’s meeting, up from just 15% a week ago. Given this rising uncertainty, traders should consider using short-dated options to hedge against a hawkish surprise from the RBA. Relying solely on a continued pause in the cash rate now carries significantly more risk. However, we must also remember the outcome from March 2025, where the RBA ultimately chose to hold rates steady, despite the hawkish chatter, before hiking later in the second quarter. This historical precedent suggests the RBA board may again prefer to wait for more comprehensive quarterly data before acting. Therefore, strategies that profit from increased volatility, rather than a purely directional bet on a hike, may be the most prudent approach. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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