Post Pandemic Recovery And Inflation Pressures
After the pandemic, the economy recovered quickly and used moderate fiscal support compared with other advanced economies. The previous energy crisis led to higher inflation than in other countries, while GDP fell only modestly. Unemployment stayed under control, and household fiscal support reduced the downside impact, including during the 2022 energy shock. A recession with lasting high unemployment did not occur, and last year’s trade war did not reduce export growth. Risks remain, including very low gas reserves. The article was produced with help from an AI tool and reviewed by an editor. The Dutch economy is showing strong underlying momentum, but this is clashing with major geopolitical risks from the Middle East. With the latest data from February 2026 showing unemployment holding steady at a low 3.7%, the domestic picture looks resilient. This creates a complex environment where domestic strength could be suddenly undermined by external shocks.Market Volatility And Hedging Considerations
The conflict’s impact on global transport is a primary concern for us, given the Netherlands’ role as a logistics hub. We have seen container freight rates on key Asia-to-Europe routes double in the last six weeks, disrupting supply chains for major Dutch companies. This suggests looking at options strategies that benefit from increased costs and uncertainty for transport and logistics firms. This uncertainty is clearly reflected in market volatility, with the AEX Volatility Index (VAEX) now consistently trading above 20, a sharp increase from the calmer period in late 2025. Such elevated volatility makes selling options premium an expensive risk, while buying protection through puts on the AEX index could be a prudent hedge. This is especially true for portfolios with heavy exposure to multinational companies listed in Amsterdam. Energy remains the most acute vulnerability, especially with very low gas reserves heading into the spring. The recent spike in TTF natural gas futures, which have climbed over 30% in the last month to near €50 per megawatt-hour, signals significant nervousness. Traders should be positioned for continued price swings in energy markets, potentially using futures to speculate on further increases or complex spreads to manage the risk. We remember the energy shock of 2022, where inflation rose sharply while the economy avoided a deep recession. However, the current situation is different due to the depleted gas reserves, making the economy more fragile to a sudden supply disruption. This historical precedent should caution against assuming the same level of resilience will hold this time. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.
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