Norges Bank Meeting Outlook
At its March meeting, Norges Bank is expected to revise its interest rate path higher, implying a probability of a rate rise. Any currency reaction to the meeting is expected to be short-lived. EUR/NOK could drop to 11 in March, but this is expected to be temporary. Over the next three months, EUR/NOK is forecast to move back towards 11.25. The article was produced with the help of an AI tool and reviewed by an editor. The Norwegian Krone has been strong lately, pushed by high oil prices and the central bank’s daily currency purchases. With Brent crude currently trading over $95 a barrel, up from around $85 at the start of the year, this support continues. As of today, the EUR/NOK exchange rate is hovering around 11.05, close to the key psychological level of 11.Trading Strategy Considerations
Factors like ongoing petroleum tax payments, which require energy companies to buy krone, could push the EUR/NOK rate down toward 11 in the coming days. This is amplified by Norges Bank continuing its daily purchase program of NOK 600 million. This confluence of demand for the krone creates a window of opportunity for further, albeit brief, strength. We also anticipate a hawkish message from Norges Bank at its next meeting, especially with the latest CPI data for February showing inflation remains sticky at 4.2%, well above target. While the market has priced in some tightening, the bank’s revised interest rate path could be more aggressive than expected. However, we saw in 2025 that the krone’s positive reaction to monetary policy news was often very short-lived. For traders, any dip in the EUR/NOK pair towards the 11 level should be seen as a potential entry point for a reversal. This could involve buying EUR call options with expirations two to three months out. This strategy positions for a scenario where the krone’s current strength fades as predicted. We expect this period of krone strength to be temporary, viewing the fundamental drivers as fleeting. Our forecast anticipates that the EUR/NOK pair will drift back up towards the 11.25 mark by June 2026. This view relies on the pattern seen last year, where seasonal strength in the krone gave way to broader currency trends. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.
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