Technical Outlook And Momentum
Technically, Monday’s fall held above the 200-hour EMA near $78.85. The MACD moved up towards the zero line and the histogram contracted, pointing to weaker bearish momentum. The RSI rose to 45.33 from oversold levels. Support sits at $86.85, then $84.70, with $83.00 as a further downside level. Resistance is seen at $89.00 and $91.00, with $96.80 as a higher target if $91.00 breaks. The broader uptrend remains in place after a pullback from the $112 area. WTI is a US-sourced benchmark oil traded via the Cushing hub. API and EIA inventory reports can move prices; their results are within 1% of each other 75% of the time, and the EIA data is treated as more reliable. OPEC has 12 members, and OPEC+ adds 10 more.March 2026 Market Backdrop
We are seeing a very different market in March 2026 than what we experienced during the turmoil of last year. The 2025 conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent WTI prices soaring past $110, but the market has since settled into a new, higher range. Currently, WTI is trading with more stability around the $95 per barrel mark, suggesting a persistent risk premium is now built into the price. Global supply remains a key concern and supports the current price levels, even after government interventions in 2025 like the IEA reserve release. Last week’s Energy Information Administration report on March 4, 2026, showed a modest inventory draw of 1.8 million barrels, signaling that demand continues to absorb available supply. Furthermore, OPEC+ has signaled it will maintain its current production quotas through the second quarter, providing a solid floor for prices. For derivative traders, this means implied volatility is much lower than the peaks of 2025, but it remains elevated above pre-crisis levels. This makes strategies that benefit from collecting premium, such as selling out-of-the-money puts with strike prices below the $90 support level, an attractive option. However, we must remain aware that any renewed tension in the Middle East could cause volatility to spike quickly. The cautious bullish bias from last year still holds, but the strategy should now focus on this new price range. We believe using call spreads is a prudent way to position for a gradual move towards the $100-$105 resistance area later this year. For example, buying a June 2026 $98 call while selling a June 2026 $105 call can offer upside exposure with a defined cost and risk. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.
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