National Australia Bank’s monthly business survey showed business conditions in Australia held steady at an index reading of 7 in February.
The survey also reported business confidence for February, using the same index format, alongside measures such as trading, profitability and employment.
The latest data shows Australian business conditions held steady at +7 in February, a level that remains above the long-run average. This signals that while the economy is performing adequately, momentum has plateaued for now. For us, this suggests the case for a near-term change in monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of Australia has weakened.
When we look back at the end of 2025, we saw inflation cooling but the Q4 CPI still came in at a stubborn 3.8%, keeping the RBA on the sidelines. With conditions now just holding firm rather than improving, pricing in the swaps market will likely continue to reflect a prolonged pause from the central bank. This environment makes selling short-dated interest rate volatility an increasingly attractive position.
The Australian dollar’s direction will likely be dictated more by external events, such as upcoming US inflation data, rather than domestic stability. The lack of a strong local catalyst could dampen implied volatility in AUD/USD options. We see this as an opportunity to structure trades that benefit from range-bound currency movements in the weeks ahead.
For equity index derivatives, this steady report provides a floor for the market but fails to offer a catalyst for a significant breakout. We anticipate the ASX 200 will remain within a defined range, making strategies like selling covered calls against long positions or establishing iron condors more compelling. These trades capitalize on sideways price action and time decay.
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