Key Technical Levels
Support sits in the 0.7670 to 0.7700 zone, where a trendline from this year’s low near 0.7601 runs. A break below 0.7700 could open the way to the January 28 swing low at 0.7606. If USD/CHF climbs back above 0.7800, it may test the March 3 swing high at 0.7878. Further gains could then target the 100-day SMA at 0.7905. Looking back to March 2025, we saw the dollar weaken against the franc due to a poor jobs report, causing the pair to dip below 0.7800. The US jobs data released yesterday for February 2026, however, showed a robust addition of 245,000 jobs, reinforcing the dollar’s current strength. This is a starkly different economic picture than the one we faced a year ago. At that time, the technical bias was clearly tilted to the downside, with many expecting a test of support near 0.7670. That downward move proved to be a bottom, as the pair has since rallied significantly, now trading around 0.8960. The failure to reclaim 0.7800 back in early 2025 was a false signal for a prolonged downturn. For the coming weeks, this sustained bullish momentum suggests traders should consider strategies that profit from a rising USD/CHF. We believe buying call options with strike prices at or above 0.9000 could be a viable play to capture further upside. This approach allows participation in the rally while defining the maximum risk to the premium paid.Fundamental Drivers And Options Strategies
This outlook is supported by the divergence in central bank policy that was not as clear last year. The Federal Reserve is holding firm with rates given that inflation remains sticky at 3.1%, while the Swiss National Bank has signaled a more dovish stance to counter franc strength. This fundamental difference is a powerful tailwind for the currency pair. Given the strong trend, selling out-of-the-money put options could also be an effective strategy for collecting premium. For example, a trader could sell puts with a strike price around 0.8850, a level that could act as new support. This benefits from both a rising price and the passage of time. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.
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