US index futures were higher ahead of the New York open, with Dow futures up about +0.25%, S&P 500 futures up about +0.21%, and Nasdaq futures up about +0.24%. All three were trading above key value references and central pivots, setting up a decision on whether price holds above upper gate areas or rotates back into value. Dow (YM) was at 48,505, with TPO POC 48,400 and VPOC 48,420, and VAH/VAL at 48,460/48,340. Key levels were: UG 48,543–48,616, CP 48,426, LG 48,262–48,160, UR 48,923, and LR 47,729. S&P 500 (ES) was at 6,824, with TPO POC 6,810 and VPOC 6,790, and VAH/VAL at 6,815/6,787. Key levels were: UG 6,788–6,803, CP 6,764, LG 6,745–6,733, UR 6,866.50, LR 6,683.50, plus 6,909.67–6,923.00 and 6,979.50 above UR. Nasdaq (NQ) was at 24,845, with TPO POC 24,625 and VPOC 24,750, and VAH/VAL at 24,725/24,550. Key levels were: UG 24,839–24,879, CP 24,774, LG 24,681–24,625, UR 25,051, LR 24,384, plus 25,134–25,186 and 25,405 above UR. We are seeing US indices holding above key support pivots, suggesting a potential for upward movement in the coming weeks. This follows the strong market rally we experienced in late 2025, which was driven by optimism about cooling inflation and the resilience of the economy. The current market structure is now set for a decision on whether to continue that trend. The S&P 500 is positioned for a test of its upper range at 6,866.50. Acceptance above this level would signal a continuation of the upward trend that has lifted the index by approximately 5% so far this year. With market volatility, measured by the VIX, remaining low around 14, conditions appear favorable for a potential breakout. Similarly, we see the Nasdaq 100 leaning into its upper gate around 24,839. A decisive move above this area would likely confirm a broader risk-on sentiment, especially after the strong fourth-quarter 2025 earnings season for technology companies. This sets up a clear path toward the upper target of 25,051. For derivative traders, this technical setup favors strategies positioned for a move higher. Buying call options or implementing bull call spreads could be effective if the indices confirm a breakout above their upper gate levels. The relatively low volatility makes entering such positions more affordable. The primary risk is a rejection at these upper levels, which would cause a rotation back toward value. We must watch the central pivots, such as 48,426 on the Dow, as a failure to hold this support would signal a loss of upward momentum. A breakdown below these pivots would shift our focus to the lower support gates. Looking ahead, our response should be guided by upcoming economic data, particularly the next inflation and jobs reports. The February 2026 jobs report showed continued strength with 215,000 jobs added, and any data that alters expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut later this year will be the main catalyst for either a breakout or a breakdown.

Start trading now – Click here to create your real VT Markets account