Key Levels And Session Map
S&P 500 futures (ES) were down about 1.81%, at 6,760 with LR/VPOC 6,764, TPO POC 6,815, VAL 6,795 and VAH 6,870. Levels listed were UR 6,979, UG 6,788–6,803, CP 6,866, LG 6,827–6,842, demand 6,745–6,733, reclaim band 6,803–6,815, and next downside level 6,683. Nasdaq futures (NQ) were down about 2.48%, at 24,452 versus LR 24,384, VAL 24,675, TPO POC 24,825 and VPOC/CP 24,880, with VAH 24,975. The map showed UG 24,617–24,642, CP 24,579, LG 24,504–24,532, reclaim 24,430–24,458, breakdown gate 24,326–24,291, UD 24,774, and next pivot 24,142. Right now, we are pinned down at a major decision point for the coming weeks. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures are all testing critical lower support levels after giving back the prior day’s gains. How the market responds here will set the tone for the rest of the month. If these support levels fail, especially the 6,764 mark on the S&P 500 (ES), we should prepare for a new downside phase. This weakness is supported by the latest February CPI data, which showed inflation remains stubborn at 3.4%, diminishing hopes for near-term interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. A break here would confirm that sellers are in control, targeting levels like 6,683 on ES in the near future. On the other hand, if buyers defend these levels, any bounce must be treated with caution. For a rally to be credible, we need to see price not just tag but hold above reclaim zones like 6,803–6,815 on the ES. Otherwise, these rallies are likely just temporary “repair” moves that will attract more selling pressure.Risk Triggers And Volatility
This situation feels familiar, as we saw similar tests of support during the market pauses in 2023 and 2024. In those instances, the market had to prove it could absorb selling pressure before continuing its upward trend. The current test is just as important and will determine if this is a healthy pullback or the start of a more significant correction. Given this setup, we can expect volatility to pick up significantly. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has already climbed to 19.5, reflecting rising uncertainty about the Fed’s path and the market’s direction. Traders should consider using options to protect positions against a potential breakdown or to position for larger price swings. For now, the plan is simple: watch the key lower range levels like ES 6,764 and NQ 24,384. A sustained break below these points is a clear trigger to add to short positions or purchase protective puts. A strong, confirmed bounce that reclaims the “lower gate” levels would be a signal to reduce bearish exposure. The Nasdaq is showing the most vulnerability, down nearly 2.5%, which is a classic reaction to fears of higher interest rates for longer. Its ability to hold the 24,384 level will be a key tell for overall market sentiment. A failure there would likely lead the rest of the market lower in the coming days. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.
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