CFTC data show speculators rebuilding long USD positions, boosted by Middle East conflict, despite de-dollarisation pressures.
Euro area Q1 activity disappointed; German industry weak. Oil shock smaller than 2022; wages may rise earlier.
ECB holds rates at 2.0%; Deutsche Bank sees two hikes, markets imply third amid weak growth outlook.
Hungary’s Tisza supermajority eases uncertainty, but EU funds may lag; budget revisions could strain fiscal metrics.
March US existing home sales missed forecasts: 3.98 million versus 4.06 million expected, signaling weaker market activity.
US existing home sales fell 3.6% in March, reversing February’s 1.7% rise, signalling renewed market weakness.
HSBC: Middle East tensions and oil prices steer the dollar, with Hormuz disruption risks driving risk-on/off moves.
NZD/USD slipped to 0.5830 as failed US-Iran talks lifted dollar demand, oil prices, and Fed hawkish bets.
IMF to cut global growth forecasts; warns energy shock may become fiscal shock amid rising debt costs.
TD Securities cites Iran risks, higher oil and inflation data keeping Fed restrictive; sees cuts starting September 2026.
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