US JOLTS job openings totalled 6.866 million in March. The figure was above expectations of 6.83 million.
The data refers to the Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for the United States. It measures the number of available job vacancies during the month.
Rates Stay Higher For Longer
The March job openings data came in slightly hotter than expected, suggesting the labor market is not cooling as quickly as anticipated. This resilience gives the Federal Reserve less reason to consider near-term interest rate cuts. For us, this means the “higher for longer” rate narrative remains firmly in play.
This persistent labor market strength adds significant weight to upcoming inflation data. With the ratio of job openings to unemployed persons holding at a firm 1.4, upward pressure on wages could continue to fuel services inflation. All eyes will now be on the April CPI report, where forecasts are already centering around a sticky 3.1% annual rate.
In the coming weeks, we should anticipate a flatter yield curve as the market prices out rate cuts for the summer. Traders may look to options on SOFR or Fed Funds futures to position for rates staying elevated through the third quarter. Following the JOLTS data, probabilities for a July rate cut derived from futures markets have already fallen from over 40% last week to below 25%.
For equity markets, this sustained pressure from high interest rates could increase volatility. We should consider buying protection, such as puts on the S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100 indices, as a hedge against a potential downturn. The VIX, which has been hovering near 14, could see a significant bid if the market begins to doubt the economy can sustain this level of restrictive policy.
Positioning And Market Risk
We saw a similar pattern in the second half of 2025 when a series of strong labor reports delayed the Fed’s expected pivot and led to a 7% correction in equities. That experience showed us how quickly sentiment can shift when hopes for rate relief are dashed by data. This current environment feels very familiar, and we should position accordingly.
