US CFTC data shows oil NC net positions fell to 191.9K. The prior reading was 192.3K.
The slight dip in speculative net long positions shows that big money is hesitant to add to bullish bets right now. This is not a major rush for the exits but a sign of caution setting in. We are seeing a market that seems well-balanced, waiting for a new reason to move decisively in either direction.
Conflicting Macro Signals
This indecision makes sense given the conflicting economic signals we’ve received recently. April’s CPI print came in slightly hot at 3.1%, keeping the Federal Reserve on alert and tempering expectations for a quick boost in demand. However, the latest jobs report showed unexpected strength, which suggests the consumer isn’t collapsing just yet.
On the supply side, the market is also in a holding pattern ahead of the June OPEC+ meeting. The latest EIA report showed a surprise inventory build of 1.2 million barrels, which capped the upside for crude prices this week. Traders are now questioning if the voluntary production cuts, some of which were established back in 2025, will be extended.
We should remember the lessons learned from previous years, and looking at the sharp rallies from the perspective of 2025, it’s clear that getting caught short is dangerous. That experience is likely creating a floor under the market, preventing a larger sell-off despite some weaker data. This setup suggests that selling premium through strategies like covered calls or short strangles on WTI could be effective.
WTI crude seems comfortable in a range between roughly $82 and $88 a barrel for now. Implied volatility has been steadily decreasing, now sitting near 28%, making it less appealing to be a simple buyer of options. The current environment rewards traders who can collect theta decay while waiting for the market to choose a direction.
