The Netherlands’ gross domestic product (non-seasonally adjusted) grew by 1.8% year-on-year in the first quarter (1Q).
This rate was unchanged from the previous reading at 1.8%.
Steady Growth Supports Volatility Selling
The Netherlands’ economy grew by 1.8% in the first quarter, showing a consistent pace. This steady performance, matching the growth we saw at the end of 2025, removes immediate fears of either a sharp slowdown or an overheating economy. For us, this points towards selling volatility on AEX index options, as major economic surprises now seem less likely.
We’re seeing the Netherlands outperform the broader Eurozone, which is currently tracking closer to 1.2% growth for the same period. This divergence suggests that long positions on Dutch equities hedged against a short on the broader Euro Stoxx 50 could be a viable pair trade. The relative strength of the Dutch economy provides a buffer that may not exist in other member states.
With recent Dutch inflation data coming in at 2.1%, we are nearing the European Central Bank’s target, further cementing the idea of policy stability. This contrasts with the slightly more stubborn inflation we observed across the bloc in late 2025. Consequently, we should consider that interest rate futures are likely overpriced for any hawkish ECB action in the near term.
This environment of steady but unspectacular growth reminds us of the recovery period we navigated back in 2024, where picking the right sectors was key. We’re currently seeing strength in Dutch technology and semiconductor stocks, while consumer-facing companies are lagging. This suggests call options on specific large-cap tech names on the AEX might offer better opportunities than broad index plays.
