EUR/USD fell to 1.1668 and later traded mostly in a tight band. It dipped again to 1.1671, rose to 1.1723, and closed at 1.1720, up 0.32%.
The move is described as short-term consolidation after earlier weakness. The pair is expected to keep range-trading between 1.1685 and 1.1730 in the near term.
Near Term Range Trading
Over a 1–3 week horizon, there is still scope for further downside. A move towards 1.1625 is conditional on a break and hold below 1.1665.
Resistance is noted at 1.1750, which is expected to limit gains. The downside view remains in place while 1.1750 is not breached.
The article states it was produced using an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.
We are currently seeing EUR/USD rebound within a tight range, a situation that feels familiar when we look back at our analysis from this time in 2025. The price action is best viewed as a short-term consolidation period following recent weakness. While the pair is holding steady for now, the potential for further downside in the coming weeks remains our primary view.
Key Levels And Market Drivers
This bearish outlook is reinforced by the latest economic data. The most recent US Core PCE inflation figures released last week showed persistent price pressures at 2.8%, keeping the Federal Reserve on a hawkish path. In contrast, preliminary April inflation data from the Eurozone dipped slightly to 2.4%, giving the European Central Bank more room to consider easing, which weighs on the euro.
For traders, this suggests that the path of least resistance is lower. We see strong resistance capping the topside near 1.0750, while a clear break below the 1.0680 support level is needed to confirm the next move down. Purchasing short-dated put options with strike prices below 1.0680 could be a strategic way to position for a potential breakdown.
Looking back at the period following our analysis in late April 2025, we saw the pair eventually break below its key support at 1.1665 and trend lower into May. This historical precedent suggests that the current consolidation phase could be building energy for a similar downward move. Therefore, we will be watching for a decisive break of support to signal the start of a renewed decline.
