NZD/USD traded lower near 0.5860 on Friday, 24 April, as the US Dollar stayed supported despite a small easing in broader momentum. Support for the Dollar came from firm US data and continued geopolitical uncertainty.
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 215K from 212K, pointing to a steady US labour market. S&P Global PMIs beat expectations, with Manufacturing at 52.1 and Services at 53.7, keeping both sectors in expansion.
Higher yields followed the data and helped the Dollar. In geopolitics, reports denying Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf’s resignation from a negotiating role added to uncertainty over Middle East talks.
On the four-hour chart, NZD/USD was at 0.5858 with a mild bearish bias. The RSI was near 37, showing selling pressure but not an oversold reading.
Resistance levels were marked at 0.5871 and 0.5879, then 0.5907 and 0.5930, with a stronger barrier at 0.5965. Support was seen at 0.5847, then 0.5840 and the 100-period SMA near 0.5833, with a break below this area pointing to further losses.
Given the pressure on the NZD/USD, we see the US Dollar’s strength as the dominant factor, driven by solid American economic performance. The recent data, including weekly jobless claims at 215K and strong S&P Global PMIs, confirms a resilient economy. This environment supports higher US yields, making the dollar a more attractive asset.
We believe this trend is further supported by the latest US Consumer Price Index data for March, which showed inflation holding at 3.6%, keeping the Federal Reserve on a hawkish path. Additionally, retail sales grew by a robust 0.8% last month, underscoring the view of a strong US consumer. This fundamentally weighs on the Kiwi dollar’s value relative to the greenback.
For the coming weeks, derivative traders could consider buying put options on the NZD/USD with a strike price just below the current market, perhaps around 0.5850. This strategy would capitalize on a break of the immediate support levels noted in the technical analysis. The defined risk of an options contract is a key advantage if the market sentiment unexpectedly reverses.
Alternatively, for those anticipating that any upward movement will be limited, a bear call spread is a viable strategy. We could structure this by selling a call option with a strike price near the 0.5930 resistance level while buying a further out-of-the-money call to cap risk. This position would generate income if the currency pair remains below that key technical barrier.
We saw a similar dynamic play out in the third quarter of 2025 when the pair dropped from over 0.62 to below 0.59 following a series of stronger-than-expected US jobs reports. That period demonstrated how sensitive this pair is to widening interest rate differentials driven by US economic outperformance. This historical precedent suggests the current downward pressure has legs if US data continues to surprise to the upside.
