USD/CHF ended the week lower, down 0.87% on the week and 0.27% on the day. The pair hit a five-week low at 0.7775.
The pair has dropped below all major simple moving averages, including the 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs. It closed below the 50-day SMA at 0.7825, suggesting further downside.
The RSI is in bearish territory, pointing to persistent selling pressure since 9 April. That shift began when the RSI fell below the 50 neutral level.
A move below 0.7800 would open the way to the support area around 0.7775/80, then the 10 March low at 0.7748. Additional demand is located near 0.7700.
If USD/CHF rises, resistance starts at the 50-day SMA. Above that, the next levels are the 100-day SMA at 0.7871, the 20-day SMA at 0.7909, and the 200-day SMA at 0.7937.
We are seeing a familiar setup in USD/CHF, echoing the bearish shift we observed in April of 2025. Last year, the pair broke below all its key simple moving averages, which signaled a significant downturn. This historical precedent sets a cautious tone for the coming weeks.
As of today, April 18, 2026, the pair is again trading just below its 50-day SMA, with the Relative Strength Index showing persistent selling pressure. This technical weakness is very similar to the momentum that pushed the price toward its lows this time last year. The structure suggests that sellers are currently in control of the market’s direction.
This view is reinforced by the Swiss National Bank’s recent hawkish tone, aiming to curb inflation which was last reported at a stubborn 2.2% year-over-year for March 2026. Meanwhile, the latest US jobs report from early April showed a slight cooling in wage growth, giving the Federal Reserve less reason to be aggressive. This divergence in central bank policy favors a stronger franc.
Traders should watch the 0.7800 level closely, as it was a key psychological support in the 2025 downturn. A firm break below this point would open the door to targets tested last year, such as 0.7775 and then the 0.7748 low. The market appears to be building momentum for a test of that critical support.
Given this outlook, purchasing put options with strike prices near 0.7800 could be a strategy to position for further downside. Shorting USD/CHF futures contracts is another direct approach, using a stop-loss just above the 50-day SMA to manage risk effectively. These positions would benefit if the historical pattern from 2025 repeats itself.
However, we must also consider the risk of a reversal if the pair manages to climb back above the key moving averages. A break of resistance around the 0.7870 area could invalidate the bearish thesis. This would suggest that any downward move was a false signal, potentially trapping short positions.
