Hungary’s election produced a parliamentary supermajority for Peter Magyar’s opposition Tisza party, with roughly 69% of the mandate versus 28% for Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz. The result is described as reducing transition risks and creating room for structural reforms.
Commerzbank said EUR/HUF has already traded near 365 following the vote. It also said it expects to revise its end-June forecast down from 380, which implies a stronger forint than previously projected.
The bank added that broader war-related volatility could limit how much the currency benefits in the near term. In its pre-election view, it said EUR/HUF could reach 365 after the vote if the Iran war situation allowed.
The article notes it was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.
Looking back at the election in 2025, the Tisza party’s supermajority victory was seen as a pivotal moment for Hungary, promising significant structural reforms. This overwhelming mandate was interpreted as a more positive outcome than a simple majority, creating a credible opportunity to reset the country’s political and economic trajectory. The initial market reaction was a sharp strengthening of the forint.
We recall the EUR/HUF exchange rate briefly touched the 365 level, which was our target assuming a calm global environment. However, persistent geopolitical risks and an aggressive rate-cutting cycle from the Hungarian National Bank have since tempered that optimism. The pair is currently trading closer to 392, suggesting the initial political premium has faded.
Fundamentally, the case for a stronger forint remains, as we anticipate progress on unlocking EU funds will provide a significant tailwind. Inflation in Hungary has fallen dramatically to 3.6% year-over-year, which supports economic stability even as the central bank continues to lower its policy rate from last year’s highs. This disinflationary trend strengthens the forint’s real value.
For the coming weeks, derivative traders should consider positioning for a renewed downward move in EUR/HUF. Buying EUR/HUF put options with strikes around 385 or 380 could offer a favorable risk-reward profile to capitalize on forint strength. Short-dated forward contracts also present a direct way to express this bearish view on the currency pair.
However, traders must hedge against ongoing volatility stemming from regional conflicts and the pace of domestic monetary easing. A slower-than-expected release of EU funds or a sudden shift in global risk sentiment could trigger short-term forint weakness. Therefore, maintaining disciplined stop-loss levels on any short EUR/HUF positions is crucial.
