EUR/USD rose after opening with a gap down and traded near 1.1690 in Asian hours on Monday. The daily chart shows the pair moving higher within an ascending channel.
The pair remains above the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which points to an upward tilt. The 14-day Relative Strength Index is near 56, indicating upward momentum that is not overstretched.
Resistance is seen near the top of the channel around 1.1750, then at the eight-week high of 1.1834 set on 23 February. If price moves above that area, the next level is around 1.2082, the highest since June 2021, reached on 27 January.
Support sits at the 50-day EMA of 1.1640 and the nine-day EMA of 1.1636. Below those, attention turns to the lower channel boundary near 1.1500 and the eight-month low of 1.1411 from 13 March.
The technical analysis was produced with the help of an AI tool.
Looking back at the analysis from around this time in 2025, we recall a bullish technical setup for EUR/USD, with the pair holding within an ascending channel. The expectation was for a potential test of the 1.1750 resistance zone. That particular price structure pointed towards buying on dips as a primary strategy.
That upside momentum never fully materialized last year, as the pair instead saw significant pressure from a more cautious European Central Bank. We remember that industrial production figures out of Germany were particularly weak in the second half of 2025, which capped the euro’s strength. The pair spent much of late 2025 consolidating well below the 1.12 mark.
Now, in April 2026, the fundamental picture has shifted significantly. Eurostat’s latest flash estimate for March inflation came in at 2.4%, perfectly in line with the ECB’s target. This stable inflation reading gives the central bank room to hold its policy steady, providing a firm base for the currency.
On the other side of the pair, futures markets are now pricing in a greater than 70% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut by this summer. This view has been reinforced by the latest U.S. jobless claims data, which ticked up to 225,000, its highest level in four months. This policy divergence is creating a clear tailwind for EUR/USD that was absent in 2025.
For the coming weeks, derivative traders should consider strategies that benefit from a gradual grind higher, rather than explosive momentum. Buying call options with strike prices around 1.1200 and expirations in June 2026 allows for participation in the upside while defining risk. The implied volatility is currently low, making long-option strategies relatively inexpensive.
We must use the current 50-day EMA near 1.0950 as a key level for risk management. A sustained break below this area would challenge the bullish outlook. Therefore, purchasing protective puts with a strike near 1.0900 could be a prudent hedge against any unexpected reversal in sentiment.
