DBS Group Research expects Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) to rise for a seventh consecutive month in March 2026. It forecasts growth of 10.3% year-on-year, up from 4.0% in February.
The projected increase is linked to stronger electronics domestic exports compared with weaker non-electronics shipments. Electronics exports are associated with global demand related to AI.
Non-electronics domestic exports may improve as Lunar New Year base effects fade. Petrochemicals may remain under pressure due to a naphtha feedstock supply crunch linked to the Middle East conflict.
The article states it was produced with assistance from an artificial intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.
We see that Singapore’s exports for March are expected to show very strong growth of 10.3%, a major jump from the 4.0% seen in February. With the official data due to be released next week, this forecast points to a potential market-moving event. A number this positive would likely strengthen the Singapore Dollar against its major trading partners.
For traders, this suggests positioning for a stronger SGD, perhaps by acquiring USD/SGD put options that expire after the data release. As we get closer to the announcement, we can expect implied volatility on these currency options to rise. This strategy allows for defined risk while capturing potential downside in the USD/SGD pair if the export numbers meet or beat expectations.
The key driver is the global AI boom, which is directly benefiting our electronics sector and, by extension, the broader stock market. This view supports taking long positions in Straits Times Index (STI) futures or buying call options on local semiconductor and tech-related companies. This aligns with recent global data, where the Semiconductor Industry Association noted that global chip sales for February 2026 rose by 22% year-over-year.
In contrast, the non-electronics segment is facing headwinds, with petrochemicals under pressure from a Middle East-related naphtha supply crunch. This weakness creates an opportunity for a pair trade: going long on select electronics exporters while simultaneously shorting petrochemical producers sensitive to feedstock costs. Recent reports showing Asian naphtha margins hitting a six-month low confirm the difficulties this particular sector is facing.
We remember a similar situation when looking at the market reaction to data in late 2025. An unexpected surge in electronics exports back then led to a sharp rally in the STI and a significant firming of the Singapore Dollar over the following weeks. Those who positioned ahead of that data release were well-rewarded for anticipating the trend.
