ING said the National Bank of Poland is likely to keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.75% for a longer period. It noted this meeting has no new forecast and is the first since the March rate cut, with attention on the Governor’s press conference.
Markets have removed about one and a half expected rate hikes after the US‑Iran ceasefire announcement. Pricing remains below 20bp at the one‑year horizon, which ING said is the lowest in the CEE region.
Policy And Inflation Backdrop
ING reported that government action in the fuel market is expected to keep inflation roughly within the central bank’s tolerance band. It forecast rates staying unchanged for an extended period.
EUR/PLN recorded its biggest one‑day fall in a year, erasing about half of the rise from pre‑conflict levels. ING said the pair and the region are still mainly driven by geopolitical news, and that a move back below 4.220 may take longer even if risk sentiment stays supportive and the ceasefire holds.
Looking back to 2025, we saw a clear playbook for the zloty’s recovery after the US-Iran ceasefire was announced. The National Bank of Poland (NBP) held its main rate at 3.75%, which calmed markets and allowed the EUR/PLN to erase about half its conflict-driven losses. This stable rate environment provided a strong anchor for the currency’s rebound.
Today, the situation has evolved, with the NBP having shifted its stance to combat persistent price pressures. With the benchmark rate now at 4.50% and March 2026 inflation data coming in at 4.1%, the central bank is clearly more hawkish than it was last year. The EUR/PLN is currently trading around 4.280, reflecting this tighter policy but also new market uncertainties.
Strategy And Key Levels
This creates a different trading environment compared to the straightforward recovery we witnessed in 2025. The mixed signals of high interest rates supporting the zloty against renewed geopolitical jitters suggest an increase in volatility. Traders should consider buying short-dated EUR/PLN straddles to profit from a significant price move in either direction over the next few weeks.
The interest rate differential between Poland and the Eurozone is also more attractive now than it was during the 2025 pause. This makes receiving PLN in forward contracts a compelling carry trade, as traders can earn the higher yield. As long as the pair remains relatively stable, this strategy will generate positive returns.
While the pre-conflict level below 4.220 remains a long-term reference, it is not the immediate focus. The key level to watch in the coming weeks is the 4.250 support, which has held twice since February 2026. A break below this could signal further zloty strength, while a failure to hold could see the pair quickly test resistance near 4.320.
