A MACD signal correctly flagged Nasdaq’s 2025 reversal, and similar conditions are now reappearing again

    by VT Markets
    /
    Apr 7, 2026
    Looking back to April 2025, we saw a clean MACD crossover on the daily Nasdaq chart around the 17,000 level that kicked off a massive 9,000-point rally. That exact signal, after a period of heavy selling, is appearing on our charts again today. This suggests a major bearish cycle may be ending, and we should prepare for a potential upward move. The recent pullback from the 24,000 highs was driven by market anxiety over the latest Consumer Price Index report, which showed core inflation remaining stubborn at 3.1%, and a cautious tone from the Fed in its March meeting. This widespread bearish sentiment has created a market structure nearly identical to the one we saw this time last year. Now, the MACD line has crossed above its signal line, telling us the directional bias has shifted.

    Daily Chart Direction Filter

    For traders, the daily chart acts as a filter; as long as the MACD stays above its signal line, our focus is exclusively on buying opportunities. We will disregard short-term bearish noise and use any pullbacks to look for entry points. This discipline is crucial, as it prevents us from fighting what could be the start of the next major impulse wave up. Drilling down to the 4-hour chart, we can see what appears to be a corrective Wave 2 nearing its completion. The recent fear in the market, which saw the VIX jump to over 21, is now subsiding as it falls back toward the 17 level, supporting the view that this pullback is losing steam. This multi-timeframe confirmation strengthens our confidence in the bullish setup. The precise entry zone we are watching is around the 23,600 level on the Nasdaq. On the 30-minute chart, we are waiting for the MACD to cross above its signal line once price enters this zone. This crossover is our trigger to execute a long trade, such as buying call options or trading futures. This setup offers a well-defined risk-reward scenario for derivative traders. A call spread or a simple long call option could be used to capitalize on the potential upward thrust, with a stop placed just below the low of the corrective wave. The reward is substantial if a powerful Wave 3 develops as the structure suggests.

    Clear Invalidation Rule

    The entire trade idea is invalidated if the daily MACD line crosses back below the signal line. If that happens, the bullish setup is off, and we will step aside without hesitation. This clear invalidation point is key to managing risk on the trade. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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